Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Yesterday’s “disappointing” GDP data gives the Reserve Bank more scope to delay a hike to the Official Cash Rate, ANZ senior economist Matthew Gault says.  The RBNZ’s next monetary policy review announcement is on April 8. It had been picking 0.5% GDP growth for the December quarter, but GDP rose just 0.2%.  Gault told Ryan Bridge ANZ had expected the Bank to be reasonably cautious about the oil price shock compared to other central banks.  “Definitely inflation will rise with oil prices going up as much as they have. But the real concern for the Reserve Bank will be whether that increase in oil prices spills over into generalized inflation, things like wages and other prices.  “And with the economy in a relatively weak state, we think they'll be less worried about that than places like Australia where the economy is firing more strongly.”  Gault said the Government was being “sensible” not to push inflation higher with fiscal stimulus in response to oil prices.  LISTEN ABOVE&nbs

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Friday 20th of March 2025, the government's acknowledged a "big shift" in the government's messaging around the war in the Middle East, Waitomo Group CEO Simon Parham, tells Ryan what oil company's are doing to assist with the oil shock.  A New study highlights just how unhealthy our eating has gotten, Nutritionist Nikki Hart shares her thoughts on why we're importing so much processed foods.  ANZ Senior Economist Matt Gault tells Ryan what the disappointing GDP result means for the state of our economy.  Plus, UK Correspondent Vincent McAviney has the latest on prices of gas and oil rising sharply due to strikes on Iran's South Pars field and the King's opened the world's longest coastal footpath which stretches around the entire coast of England.  Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener f

Is Joe Kent this week’s voice of reason? Is he the guy speaking truth in the fog of war? He spoke to Tucker Carlson, and the podcast is worth a listen.  He’s a MAGA guy. He was a Trump guy. But this week he turned his back on his President. He quit his job as America’s top counter-terrorism official. He was a soldier. He served in Iraq. His wife was killed in a suicide bombing in Syria. He’s no snowflake. He just doesn’t want the US getting bogged down in wars it can’t win.  It’s one thing to bomb the hell out of a country. But when the dust settles, the troops go home, the victory banners are unfurled, then what? In Iraq - a power vacuum and ISIS. So, in calling this out, in quitting, is Joe Kent a hero or a traitor?  The FBI’s now investigating him, but that’s not unusual. Look at Jerome Powell (Fed Chair), John Bolton, right down to Jimmy Kimmel, who was investigated by the US TV regulator after criticising Trump. Only time will tell whether there was a pressing need to start this war w

Changes to refugee law could put asylum seekers at risk.  Under proposed Government reforms, immigration officials would be able to consider crimes committed by refugee applicants.   The changes also introduce stricter rules, including mandatory biometrics appointments.  NZ Association of Migration and Investment Chair Simon Laurent told Ryan Bridge the new rules could have serious consequences for asylum seekers.  He says if they don't show up for the appointment, it appears their claim will be thrown out.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An aviation expert believes the chances of a Westport to Wellington route returning in the future are slim.  Westport is on the brink of losing its only direct air link to the capital, with flights set to be axed by May unless financial support is secured.  Regional carrier Originair stepped in to maintain the route after Sounds Air withdrew from the service in 2024.  Aviation Industry commentator Irene King told Ryan Bridge people just aren't using the route much during the week.  She says it might be sustainable for sort of unscheduled casual operations but will be very difficult to get someone in there for scheduled flights.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday 19th of March 2025, Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his forecast for GDP data out today.  Westport’s losing its only air service, Aviation commentator Irene King shares her thoughts. The Government's cracking down on criminal migrants and refugees, Immigration lawyer and Chairman of the New Zealand Association of Migration and Investment, Simon Laurent shares his thoughts.  Plus, US Correspondent Jagruti Dave has the latest on the Senate hearing on worldwide threats and the confirmation hearing of Markwayne Mullin, Trump's pick to replace Kristi Noem.  Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Westpac's chief economist is still holding out hope New Zealand will weather financial headwinds from the Iran war.  Stats NZ's releasing data for the December quarter just before 11am. Westpac and ASB have forecast 0.4% quarterly growth, while BNZ and Kiwibank suggest 0.3% and ANZ 0.2%. Kelly Eckhold told Ryan Bridge everyone's looking forward to the conflict's impacts, but he's optimistic.  He says we have strong commodity prices and the exchange rate's helping us out, meaning we're better placed than we could have been.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Old, yes. Backward looking, by its nature, but not irrelevant. We’re tipped to grow around 0.3%-0.4% for Q4 2025. It would mark, barring any surprises, the second straight month of per capita growth on the trot.  That means average income and standard of living was ticking up on a per person basis, albeit from a low base. This is important because it tells you we're on the move. We're fighting back against the recession. Some say the number is now irrelevant because of the war and oil supply, but there are reasons to be optimistic. We’re looking at alternative supplies. Our current stocks are described as stable. The Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates where they are in three weeks.  And there’s a fork in the road, if inflation bumps, there’ll be temptation to hike rates later. But we can still grow at a clip under 3% if two things happen: 1. We don’t panic buy and self-fulfil a fuel shortage2. We learn lessons from Liberation Day. Trump's actions are chaotic and often quickly reversed. T

BNZ’s chief economist Mike Jones says Treasury’s previous worst-case inflation forecast for this year of 3.7% is probably too conservative.  Annual food costs climbed 4.5% in the year to February but Jones told Ryan Bridge BNZ's 2.9% consumer price index forecast for the first quarter hadn’t changed.  “It's the second quarter that's really going to bear the brunt of the spike in petrol prices that we are seeing. So we've got a 3.8% forecast for Q2 and inflation stays above 3% now for the rest of the year on our numbers.”  Finance Minister Nicola Willis on Monday said Treasury had given her a worst-case scenario of 3.7% inflation by the end of the year, assuming a long conflict in Iran - up from the current 3.1%.  But Jones said that could now be “a bit light” - though he did not believe inflation would go above 4%.  “Of course, we've probably had the benefit of a few more days and maybe even a week of information and what we've seen in the current environment is that forecasts and ass

China remains vital to our education sector, but the market is shifting.  A new NZ China Council report shows Chinese students make up about a third of revenue, spending nearly $60 thousand a year.  But it warns families are increasingly price-conscious and weighing up other countries.  Executive Director Alistair Crozier told Ryan Bridge New Zealand must keep visa processing world-class and offer more flexible study options.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2025 Wednesday the 18th of March, Beef mince and Steak are driving the latest spike in food prices, BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones shares his thoughts.  Resource Minister Shane Jones is putting money into geothermal; Mercury Energy CEO Stew Hamilton tells Ryan how big of an impact this will have.  We’re in a global scramble for Chinese students and the stakes are high, New Zealand China Council Executive Director Alastair Crozier shares why.  Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits UK to agree a new defence partnership aimed at tackling cheap attack drone attacks and an English council bans any more memorial benches saying it's overwhelmed by them. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mercury Energy believes geothermal has a huge role to play in the future of the country's electricity industry. The Government's released a strategy on how to double the use of geothermal energy by 2040.  It's also ring fenced $50 million from the Regional Infrastructure Fund for the development of geothermal energy projects.  Mercury Chief Executive Stew Hamilton told Ryan Bridge the power just one of its geothermal sites produces is enough for around 150 thousand houses. He says it also produces clean, reliable energy 24 hours a day, no matter the weather or season. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hopes that whoever takes the reins at Fonterra can continue the current CEO's good work.   Miles Hurrell will leave the company in six months to ensure a smooth transition.   Federated Farmers Dairy Chair Karl Dean says the next CEO should continue Hurrell's approach to honest communication.   He told Ryan Bridge farmers have been told that a spade’s a spade, and that’s what needs to continue.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A view the Government's proposed changes to alcohol laws is a needed re-balance for licence-holders.  The Bill would only let people object to a premise's licence application, if they live or work in the same council area or live within one kilometre.   It also gives applicants a right of reply to objections.    Hospitality New Zealand Head of Advocacy told Ryan Bridge the current licensing process has led to some vexatious objections from those outside of the area.   He says applications aren’t often declined because of objections, but it does add unnecessary time and cost to the process.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Treasury has released numbers on the potential fallout for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war. It estimates that under a worst‑case scenario — a conflict lasting until the end of the year with elevated oil prices — inflation would rise from 3.1 percent to 3.7 percent. Finance Minister Nicola Willis says that number is too high - but is lower than Australia's current inflation - which is sitting at 3.8 percent.  ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge forecasting in this climate is difficult.  He says other spikes in oil prices have led to higher inflation - but this will all depend on how long the conflict lasts.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 17th of March 2025, ASB's Chief Economist Nick Tuffley talks the "worst case scenario" for the New Zealand economy from the Iran war.  And Ryan explains why he agrees with Nicola Willis' call to not splash the cash in response to the Iran crisis.  Hospitality NZ want the government's liquor law changes to go further - they tell Ryan what exactly they want.  Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A 1pm presser and Covid‑style alert levels. This fuel price spike is bringing back bad memories from those dark days of lockdown. But a few facts help put things in perspective. There are a lot of scenarios and best guesses floating around, but the reality is we’re not yet short on fuel. That’s at least weeks away, we’re told. The economy is in recovery, and even the worst‑case scenarios still have us growing at a little under 3% — about half a percent off pre‑war predictions. The other big difference is the response. Interest rates, even if inflation hits the high 3s, aren’t expected to shoot up dramatically or immediately, because demand falls as people put less petrol in the Honda. If you live rurally, or don’t have a Grey Lynn tractor — a.k.a. a Tesla — the price of fuel will sting. But it won’t cause the sort of catastrophic, long‑term damage that lockdowns and Covid supply disruptions did.Nicola Willis, who fronted yesterday’s 1pm media event, made it pretty clear that excise cuts and other expensive re

In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump called on the UK, China, France, Japan, South Korea and others to send ships to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open - but his request has been met with little response.  Washington Bureau Chief for the Guardian, David Smith, told Ryan Bridge, "there's been some reporting suggesting that Donald Trump was warned this is a possibility by his military planners, and his response was it'll be okay." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Monday 16th of March 2025, we get the latest on the Iran War as it enters its third week. Donald Trump has requested allies help open the Strait of Hormuz - UK Correspondent Gavin Grey tells Ryan whether Europe is likely to help.  Ryan has some advice for the Labour Party - don't automatically agree with the unions.  And Andrew Alderson celebrates Liam Lawson's brilliant weekend at the Chinese Grand Prix. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.           LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Last week ended with a bizarre situation where Labour effectively came out against a pay rise for teachers. They did this because that’s what the unions wanted. And what the unions want, the unions usually get. Union strategy 101 is getting everyone who’s not a member to become one. The tactic is peer pressure. If you can deprive non‑union members of a pay rise while dragging out pay negotiations, that’s leverage. Labour last week got rid of Willow‑Jean Prime, who scored an F in the portfolio. Ginny Anderson has been lumped with it at a time when National is seen, across a bunch of polls this term, to be either better or at least as good as Labour on education. Which is saying something. Like health, it’s usually the purview of the left. But something’s shifted, and Ginny probably needs to take a good, hard look at which battles she blindly follows her comrades into. Charter schools are another example. I was reading at the weekend about the breadth of subjects and students these schools cater to: seven Māori