Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Simon Shares Moody's did not downgrade us, but they did put us on review for a downgrade that will put us one notch above junk status. Then we'll have all three rating agencies on the same level with Standard & Poor heading the pack as we're on a negative outlook with them. Local bank results looking good with impairments improving (expect for Barclays Africa). On the surface they look cheap, but not if earnings weaken going forward, and earnings will weaken. Now Old Mutual (JSE code: OML) may split itself up and return back to South Africa. But will (can) it sell Nedbank (JSE code: NED)? We Get Mail AntonK (via Twitter) Simon, why would you call it (AB Inbev, JSE code ANB) ex growth as the two brewers together have roughly 30% global market share?. CraigNotAlan (via Twitter) Investing lump sum in ETFs in these markets, local & int - immediate or phased over time (& period)? Arin The issue I have is that I don't have any pure property ETFs or unit trusts (except for the odd property comp

Simon Shares Clover (JSE code: CLR) has "decided to withdraw from future investments in Nigeria", seems hasty? Barclays exiting Africa selling off their ABSA (JSE code: BGA) stake, more hasty decisions? Nice boring results from Metrofile (JSE code: MFL), exactly as wanted. Big seller seems to now be gone after large transactions on Monday and stock has run hard since. New tax year, you can add another R30k into your TFSA. The Momentum portfolio update, new stocks and methodology is online here. Janine Weilbach Senior Research Analyst Thebe Stock Broking Construction stocks have had a very hard time since the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. With this in mind, how does one look at a construction company in order to make investment decisions? order books seem to be popular but often misleading, large piles of cash seem great but suddenly disappear. We speak to an expert to better understand investing in local construction. We Get Mail Matt C (via twitter) Can you, or someone in the know, please explain Dow T

Simon Shares Woolies (JSE code: WHL) offering script of cash for dividend. Default is cash, I'm taking new shares. Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update looks great, HEPS some 30% higher. But what of the R1,6bn write down for lost aluminium in China the previous year? The stock initially popped 8% higher but traded red by late morning. Budget 2016, Simon's thoughts Budget is R1.46tn vs R1.45tn in the October MTBPS. Deficit R139bn, which we have to borrow and that cost is increasing as R186 government bond is 9.8% from 9.3%. Budget deficit will fall from 3.2% in the 2016/2017 year to 2.4% in 2018/2019 Capital Gains Tax (CGT) gets increased from 33.3% or marginal rate to 40% while the amount of tax free CGT every year goes from R30k to R40k. No change to Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) or Securities Transfer Tax (STT). Lots of small tax increases and some new ones; Increased; fuel levy, bag levy, sin taxes, transfer duty on +R10m properties, etc. New; sugar tax, globe tax and tyre tax. Social gra

Simon Shares Minister Gordhan delivers his budget speech next Wednesday, what can we expect in terms of new or higher taxes? STT, DWT and CGT? Remember, remember. The end of February is end of the tax year and you have until then to fill in your R30k limit for TFSA. If you already have hit your limit new year starts on 1 March 2016. We have recommended portfolio and my picks here. Anglo America (JSE code: AGL) announced their restructuring. The big, but not unsurprising was the exiting of Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO). But how? They could just unbundle to shareholders, or try sell it. Latter will not be easy and former would put serious pressure on the KIO share price if the almost 70% AGL holds hit the market. ARB Holdings (JSE code: ARB) remains ungeared with R190,9m net cash on hand. I first discovered this company in about 2008 when they had some R300m. They've been spending it very very cautiously, too cautiously? Discovery (JSE code: DSY) update has spooked the market. We've seen this before. Latest B

Simon Shares Grindrod (JSE code: GND) just hit multi-year lows trading just above 900c with a net asset value (NAV) of over 2200c. Don't fight the trend, especially on cyclical stocks. RBA (JSE code: RBA) went bust on Tuesday. Of the three; RBA, Seakay and Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) only Calgro M3 remains. Lesson is simple. Go back five years, Calgro M3 was by far the best of the three, always buy the winners. Volatility, lots of it. Welcome to bear markets, they move fast and trading them is tough, very tough. Eugene Chemaly - Afrifocus Securities Chris asks "how does one protect cash?". Preference shares are debt instruments issued by banks and others that pay set dividends linked to the prime rate. Typically trade at discount to their cash levels and have no market makers meaning capital loss is possible. In an ideal world they would offer no gain or loss, but reality is different. New Basel 3 rules may see preference shares phased out by the issuers (via repurchase) and there is a risk that the budget

Simon Shares Where's the party? Review: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner Great Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa). Next week Thursday we have another JSE Power Hour on Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA). Clive Butkow GroTech A Venture Capital company one can invest into and receive a tax break thanks to the SARS section 12J clause. They then invest into disruptive internet based companies with the strategy buy, build, flip. ==== JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Markets are volatile, but is the bear dead? I am buying Metrofile (JSE code: MFL). Good solid business that has solid earnings and currently on a dividend yield of just over 4%. Why is low oil causing such concerns on global markets? One would think it is good for consumers and hence good for economies? Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa). MPC coming to an interest rate increase ear you. Today is likely to be the first of many, reduce debt. Jean Pierre Verster 36One Asset ManagementWhat's the big picture, world economy soft or markets just jittery? What about China and oil and how is the US and EU economies doing? We Get Mail Casey With the end of the tax year looming I want to make sure my TFSA is in good standing. Can you tell me; Is my 30k limit based on cost (the amount of money I spent buying shares throughout the year) or current share value? If I go over my annual threshold can I simply sell some shares so my balance bou

Simon Shares AB Inbev (JSE code: ANB) has arrived on the JSE as the largest stock by a mile. But I am not excited nor am I buying. The market is looking just weak, but this does not smell like 2008. How many people saying that actually were in the markets in 2008? That said more downside likely, under 40,000 on the Top40 seems certain. 35,000 anybody? Drikus Combrinck CapicraftHow much money should we have in an off-shore account? This question was posed on Twitter and we get an expert view as well as other sage advice about investing off-shore (like maybe even bring some money back into Rands?). We Get Mail Sipho The TFSA is R30k a year. Is this calendar year so I can add another R30k now inJanuary? Clayton Is DBX World (JSE code: DBXWD) and Astoria (JSE code: ARA) about as good as having money offshore? Should one monthly add more to these in these circumstances instead of buying more BBET40 and other ETF's? Gerrit Is it really necessary to have stop loss orders with regards to ETF's e.g. DBX-trac

We’re back! It's 2016, wowzer. This week’s show is our annual predictions show with Marc Ashton, GM at Moneyweb, Keith McLachlan, Small/Midcap fund manager at Alpha Wealth and Simon Brown from JustOneLap. We did our first predictions show in January 2014 and and the second a year later and this is now our third show. Find 2014 here and 2015 here. We promised to revisit our predictions a year later and here we are marking our 2015 predictions and also making our 2016 predictions. Tweet or Facebook us your predictions. ==== Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Every year we end the JSE Power Hour series with a presentation from Simon Brown of Just One Lap in which he looks at his predictions for 2016 and how to position your portfolio accordingly. The video is below but we have included the audio only into this weeks JSEDirect. Included in the presentation is; Reviewing the 2015 predictions Top stock picks for 2016 The South African economy (GDP growth, drought, recession?) State of commodities, mining and when to buy them Elections, unions and Eskom US, EU and China Bloodhound and more The PDF of the presentation is here and if you'd rather watch the video is here. ====== Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not neces

Simon Shares Santova (JSE code: SNV) released results that had some dodge workings with the results. Last year they had some abnormal items in their HEPS that they were more than happy to accept. This year they're saying, no take those out to compare against this year as we didn't have the abnormal profits. Well hang on, you can't have it both ways. Either you include and compare or you don't. This is why I always only use diluted HEPS, none of this normalised HEPS nonsense. That all said I hold the stock and am happy. The indices will be adjusting on 21 December with AngloGold Ashanti (JSE code: ANG) exiting the Top40 and that means no gold stocks left in the index for the first time ever. The gold industry is dying locally and has been for a while and this really just confirms that slow death spiral. MTN (JSE code: MTN) has seen their fine reduced to USD3.2billion. A good reduction but still a massive number. The company also announced a series of "new operating structure and senior management changes" to

Simon Shares Astoria (JSE code: ARA) listed yesterday and traded pretty much inline with net asset value (NAV) of USD1.00. I hold and like it very much. But it could be a tough year for the stock if Rand strengthens and US markets slow. Balwin (JSE code: BWN) published their first set of results as a listed company, for the six months ending August. Really strong numbers but one confusing comment from management was that the second half of the year is seasonally stronger than the first. yet this is over the Christmas holidays when builders shut down and surely people are not buying houses while also buying Christmas presents? Pioneer (JSE code: PFG) results were confusing with the company trumpeting adjusted HEPS growth of 23%. But adjusted for what? I always use the simple diluted HEPS which was up 12% and I know exactly what it means. Join us on 7 December for the last JSE Power Hour of the year at the JSE. Topic is 'positioning your portfolio for 2016' and being the last function of the year we'll have dr

Simon Shares MTN (JSE code: MTN) continues to fall as the latest rumour says the fine will not be reduced but that it could be paid off in instalments. However MTN has as it there way not issued any SENS on this so the market remains blind with only rumours to speculate on. I consent to stay away and will continue to do so. Balwin, Stor-Age, Trellidor, M-FiTech (JSE codes: BWN, SSS, TRL & MFI). What's the common link? All recent listings currently trading below listing price. Not a good sign for a listing boom. Join us on 7 December for the last JSE Power Hour of the year at the JSE. Topic is 'positioning your portfolio for 2016' and being the last function of the year we'll have drinks afterward and we've invited all the speakers from the year so you can mingle and ask questions of them. Books Trading Trading in the Zone - Mark Douglas Trend Following - Michael Covel Reminiscences of a Stock Operator - Edwin Lefevre Investing One up on Wall Street - Peter Lynch Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits –

Simon Shares Lonmin (JSE code: LON) a disaster of a storey. Back in July 2008 Xstrata offered GBP33 a share valuing he company at around R100billion at the time. It was rejected as under valuing the company. Stock has traded over R600 in 2007, now under 200c and a massive (seriously massive) rights issue at 21.4c. This national drought is getting very real with all sorts of implications for local companies, and none of them good. Bryan Rudd CIO Anchor Capital MaurtriusAstoria is being listed by Anchor Capital and will invest in a portfolio of global equities and private equity businesses. 60% equity 20% niche 20% alternative and private equity fund. USD based and traded on the JSE. We Get Mail Several people asking Am I buying Lonmin? Several people asking Am I buying MTN? Manro (via twitter) What price will SA investors get on JSE for SABMiller (JSE code: SAB) after the £44 offer from AB Inbev? How much of that is cash? Do I hold or sell? ====== Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email a

Simon Shares MTN (JSE code: MTN) really is making a mess of a bad situation and I have sold my holding as I can no longer trust management. Capitec (JSE code: CPI) has boomed through R600. Nothing can hold this stock back. We Get Mail Arin My question relates to the previous podcast when you mention that you will not be selling your Calgro M3 shares and you say that they are “fairly valued.” You have also mentioned a few podcasts ago that when discovery goes into the 120’s, you buy them. So now as I write this, discovery is around R147. What can I use, or how can I work out whether a stock is “fairly valued” and perhaps you can use Discovery in you example.How to find a share to buy - http://s3.amazonaws.com/OST/StandardOST_Finding_that_perfect_stock.wmv How to determine a price to pay http://s3.amazonaws.com/OST/StandardOST_What_Price_to_pay_Jul2015.wmv Robert My understanding is that SARS will distinguish between amounts invested, on the one hand, and PROFITS MADE as a result of the deposits. Can I t

Simon Shares Balwin (JSE code: BWN) listing has been modest very modest as the stock trades around 1020c after listing at 988c and the first trade at 1100c. Lonmin (JSE code: LON) announces a massive rights issue to deal with their debt maturing in the second quarter of 2016. Initially a massive spike (short squeeze) before it settled down. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) were not bad. But top line growth did not translate into bottom line growth as margins got squeezed. Patrick Barker - Wealth TapWe chatting current state of the markets and how to position a long-term portfolio in this market.  ====== Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect t

Simon Shares Sygnia (JSE code: SYG), I got 3.85% allocation which was far from thrilling and have sold my holding. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results looking good. Margins still tight with trading margin 1.3% vs. 1.2% and share still expensive but turn around is happening. Mediclinic (JSE code: MDC) becoming Al Noor via a reverse take over. They will have 73 hospitals with around 10,200 beds and 35 clinics, and nearly 32,000 employees across Middle east, UK and SA. Keith McLachlan Small and Mid Cap fund manager at Alpha WealthBalwin (JSE code: BWN) are listing on the JSE today as a residential development company. We chat to Keith about his views on the stock and whether he thinks it's worth an investment? We Get Mail Sbu I want to keep my SABMiller shares, how do I do that? Helen My broker says I was silly to buy in a TFSA and should rather buy individual shares as they'll do better. Now I am confused. ====== Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe

Simon Shares Lots of new listings hitting the JSE. Here's my 5 words on each. Sygnia - have applied and will sell Balwin - also applied and will hold Waco - bad sector, stay far away Trellidor - why owners selling if great? Capital Appreciation - SPACS not my investment style Capital and Regional - prefer property via an ETF Platinum stocks are all over the place, Lonmin (JSE Code: LON) has doubled since low of 29 September 2015. Aquarius Platinum (JSE code: AQP) is being bought by Sibanye Gold (JSE code: SGL) and Implats (JSE Code: IMP) has raised their R4billion just below current share price. But sector remains tough. The bounce is in part from very over sold and rumours of more deals. Craig Gradidge, Investment and Retirement Planning Specialist at Gradidge Mahura InvestmentsA question from Sharon (below) asked the question, how much to save for retirement? The immediate answer seems easy, the often touted 15%. But is that true? Surely as we're all different we all need different answers? So Craig he

Simon Shares Capitec (CPI)* results, as a shareholder I liked them a lot, HEPS +25% on PE os 21x. Loan duration and size down that shows their ability to turn the taps on / off at will. Cost to income edges another 1% higher while they continue to grow clients and deposits. Tigerbrands (TBS) CEO steps down. Has not been a happy period for him; Nigeria, Kenya, losing market share at home. Glencore (GLN) Goldman Sachs and Investec both issued reports that their debt levels are too high and shareholder equity could erode down to nothing. Right now being a mining company with debt is bad news, hence Implats (IMP) doing a rights issue and Lonmin (LON) looking very ill with large debt burden due in 2016. "Peak prices in gold and silver are four years old". How much longer can this commodity sell off continue? Likely longer than anybody expects. Jean Pierre Verster - 36One Asset Management China and the impact on commodity prices and what of Chinese consumers and Naspers (NPN) and Richemont (CFR). We also chat VW

Simon shares MPC no change on rates, seems increases will be very gradual. Maybe only 1 or 2 increases in 2016? Taste (TAS) hit 525c on the back of the Starbucks announcement. It now down at 400c, what's happening? Buy on rumour, sell on fact. What to do with your SABMiller (SAB) shares? I would take the money and run. How many shares should one have in a portfolio? We Get Mail Chat forum My Aveng (AEG) position is off 71%, what should I do? Buy more, hold or sell? Tariq When trading the Alsi, what time frame is the best when looking at the charts? is the 1 minute chart just noise? In your experience, which indicator has produced the best results for the Alsi? Subscriber to our feed here or sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live or subscribe in iTunes. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programm