Stuff That Interests Me

Something is very wrong with my country. Something big and something bad. We can all feel it, though we might not agree on what is actually wrong. The great institutions of state are falling apart. Mighty institutions that I grew up trusting for their integrity, respected around the world, seem to be crumbling amidst incompetence, incoherence, corruption and more.The government, essentially unelected, is unpopular and ineffectual. Not that a properly elected government would make much difference. Sir Humphrey and the Blob still seem to run everything. The system seems set up to look after the system, rather than its people. The opportunities for change and reform that were first, Brexit, then Boris Johnson’s sweeping 2019 election win, have been squandered. The government is unable to carry out even its most basic function, which is to defend the borders. The Bank of England has for many years been destroying the value of money. Inflation, which apparently was unforeseeable, is now at 9%. And that’s just offi

There has been a discernible change in the narrative over the past few weeks regarding Covid-19 vaccines. From the Andrew Bridgen affair and questions in the House of Commons regarding the unusually high seasonal death rates to the publicity that came with “Novacc” Djokovic winning the Australian Open, to the sudden collapse of Thailand’s Princess Bajrakitiyabha, daughter of the King, and the resulting (likely fabricated) story that Thailand is nullifying its Pfizer contracts, the powers-that-be - and I’m still not sure who they actually are - seem to have lost control of the narrative.The take-up of boosters was low and there is now widespread doubt amongst those who had the vaccine that they did the right thing, while there is both pride and vindication amongst those who didn’t.In a world awash with both censorship and misinformation (which is worse? - there is another thing I’m not sure about), it is difficult to know who or what to believe.We do, however, have price. There is a truth to price. Price, lik

There are just three ways, I once heard someone say, to create real wealth:* You make stuff* You mine stuff* You grow stuffEverything else is just redistribution - pushing what is already there around. We can argue about whether offering a service is “making stuff”. I would say, generally, it is. I’ve always loved that as a maxim by which to view things. Pretty much all wealth creation comes under one of those three categories. You are bringing something new into the world that did not previously exist. It’s why I have issues with forex. The foreign exchange markets are the largest and most liquid financial markets in the world. They are more than 25 times larger in daily turnover than all of the world's stock markets combined. Forex has made many people supremely rich. But is forex trading actually creating new wealth or is it another illusory consequence of fiat, and just pushing existing wealth around? It’s a question for another time because it’s item two on that list - mining - that I want to talk about

Gold had an epic bull market in the noughties - I still remember the key numbers like it was yesterday.There was the low in 1999 at $250/oz, marked for all eternity by Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, as he sold off two-thirds of British gold at the bottom of the market, when there were no compelling need to sell.That low was re-tested in 2001 and we got a classic double bottom, followed by eight years of bull market, which ended, after a big wobble in 2006, in 2008 at $1,030/oz. Then the Global Financial Crisis came along. Gold plummeted along with everything else. An unstoppable rebound lasting three more years followed. First, the gold price broke out to new highs, and on it marched until it eventually peaked in 2011, with the Greek debt crisis, at $1,920/oz.Then came the bear market. Five brutal years of pain. It went all the way back to $1,040/oz.The period between 2018 and 2020 saw gold rally again, heading north of $2,000/oz, albeit briefly.But here we are in early 2023. And guess what? As I

It’s that time of year once again when I get out my crystal ball and tell you exactly what is going to happen in this the Year of our Lord 2023 (here’s how I performed last year).   You can normally rely on your intrepid author to have strong, even if wrong opinions on markets, but I must confess to not feeling as strongly about things as I usually do. My biggest concern is how Chat GPT - the new chatbot that can generate intelligent text about, it seems, almost anything - is going to change the world. In fact, my greater concern relates to the extraordinary influence its designers are going to wield on the global narrative.So it is a humble Dominic Frisby you find today, one lacking in clear vision, nervously looking up at the egg that is no doubt going to be on my face in a year’s time. Nevertheless here are 14 things I think we will see in the year ahead.* Commodities have a good year. Oil is currently in a downtrend, so it may have a bit more to fall. Metals took their hit in mid-2022 and appear to have m

Later this week I’ll be posting my predictions for 2023, but first we revisit my predictions for 2022 to see how I got on.This is more an exercise in entertainment than anything else because, in case you needed reminding, risk management changes - and so do forecasts - as events unfold. As Mr Keynes once said, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?” So when you leap back a year, and there’s stuff that’s wildly out, and I have egg on my face, because, for example, a certain man ordered the invasion of a certain country and that threw things off rather, by all means chortle at my expense - but don’t think I didn’t revise my opinions.Right that’s the excuses over and done with. A reminder of the rules: I get 2 points for a direct hit, 1 point for close but not a bullseye, 0 for a miss and minus one for a howler. There were 14 predictions (you can read them in full here) and the first was a humdinger of a howler. My view was that, because of the scalability of tech, the Nasdaq would continue i

This is a podcast recorded with director Alex McCarron, following a comment he made to me in the pub the other day, when I asked “Where is this all going?”. “South Africa,” came the reply. “The South Africanisation of everything.”I’d like to write an article on this subject at some point soon, but for now, here is the podcast.Here’s a link to the the YouTube video, Science Must Fall, Alex mentioned in the discussion.Have you got you Kisses on a Postcard CDs yet?If you are interested in buying gold bullion, my current recommended bullion dealer in the UK is The Pure Gold Company, whether you are taking delivery or storing online. Premiums are low, quality of service is high. You can deal with a human being. I have an affiliation deals with them. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit frisby.substack.com/subscribe

I’ve been playing with a new technology this week, which, I think, is as potentially transformative as Google’s search engine, Facebook’s network or Apple’s iPhone. It’s that significant. Elon Musk says it’s “scary good”; Google management is so worried about it they have issued a “code red”; and it has achieved in just five days what took Netflix three and a half years. And it’s going to put me out of a job. This is Open AI’s latest offering ChatGPT - short for Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer. Open AI, if you are not familiar with it, is a research institute that develops artificial intelligence.  The company has developed language models that can generate human-like text and neural networks that can create images from text descriptions. Its founders include many of the world's most famous tech entrepreneurs, not least Elon Musk, and it is funded by private donations and research contracts. Its lofty “ultimate goal is to benefit humanity through the responsible development of AI”. I first heard about

I stumbled across a Gavekal Research Daily Comment over the weekend with a really interesting table that I thought we could discuss today.Gavekal Research, if you don’t know it, is a financial research firm that provides analysis and insights on global economies, markets and industries. It was founded in 1999 by Charles Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, and Louis-Vincent Gave, and is headquartered in Hong Kong. It is, the internet tells me, known for its holistic approach to analysis. Holistic is one of those corporate buzzwords that I never really know what it meant. Again the internet is our friend: in the context of financial analysis, holistic analysis refers to considering a wide range of factors, such as economic, political, and behavioural, in order to gain a full understanding of market developments. It is a way of looking at the big picture rather than just focusing on specific details or individual factors.Why didn’t they just say “big picture”? Such is the equivocal financial world in which we live.In any ca

Before we get started today, I just wanted to flag two articles from last week. First, my special report on helium. And, second, Dr John’s latest on bonds. Both for paying subscribers, there is lots of valuable info to be had, so please check them out.So to today’s piece … Every December Saxobank puts out ten outrageous predictions for the year ahead.It does not claim that these predictions will happen, but that they could happen. The purpose of the exercise is to stimulate thought, discussion and debate.And that is just what Saxobank has achieved because today we consider its ten outrageous predictions for 2023.The 10 outrageous predictions for 2023I went back to look at their predictions for 2022 to see if any of them actually happened. The very first was “The plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check.” Net Zero has not yet been abandoned, but this year has certainly seen a quite dramatic change in attitude towards fossil fuels. The second was “Facebook faceplants on youth exodus”. Facebook has certainly f

What are you getting people for Christmas this year?I have the solution.Forgive me for going full salesman, but read on and you’ll see why I do that. This is life mission stuff. First, there are all sorts of goodies in the Dominic Frisby shop, which I think you may like. We have CDs of all my various albums, the latest (and probably best yet) being Gammon and Proud. Digital versions are also available at Bandcamp.There is Contains Swearing, an EP of unbroadcastable songs for the discerning listener. I daren’t release digital versions of this online for fear of the repercussions. You can only get the CD.My other albums are there in the shop too.The best thing I’ve ever doneAnd so we come to Kisses on a Postcard, which is the musical based on my dad’s story of his experiences as a vacky in World War Two, that I’ve been working on for so long. It has been my life’s mission to get this made and I consider it to be, artistically, the best thing I’ve ever done or been involved with.But trying to get people to liste

Some interesting developments in the murky world of geopolitics to report on this week, as the currency wars heat up.WWIII has already started. So says US economist Pippa Malgrem, who was Special Assistant to US President George Bush for Economic Policy and a former member of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.“We are in a hot war in cold places: Space, Cyberspace, Underwater, and high places, including the Arctic, and the Himalayas, and in proxy conflicts in places the media give a cold shoulder to like Africa.” (Not to mention the Pacific). A cold war in hot places then - as well as a hot war in cold places.We are also, of course, in a very hot currency war.Vladimir Putin goes down the bitcoin rabbit holeThis week, with the aim of limiting Russia’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine, the G7 Nations, the European Union and Australia set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude oil. This follows the EU's embargo on Russian crude imports by sea, with similar pledges from the US, the UK,

Today we consider the coldest substance on earth.Which is?I knew you knew. Liquid helium. I have been covering helium for several years now, and it’s time to revisit the theme today. The reason? I keep reading articles about helium shortages (and these have nothing to do with the controversial cryptocurrency of the same name).Bull markets come along every few years in some niche but strategically important commodity. I’ve seen it in cobalt, lithium, graphite, phosphate, uranium, rare earth metals, tin and others besides. The story is almost always the same. Years of underinvestment have led to a shortage of supply of the said commodity. Government stockpiles are exhausted. And, now, suddenly, the commodity is essential to some new technology. Cue the bull market. What do we need helium for - and why is there a shortage?Helium is the second most common element in the universe, so how can there be a shortage?You could say the same about hydrogen and that’s even more common. There may be plenty of it up there, b

This was supposed to go out to one and all last week, but for some reason it didn’t. So today we try again - and the article can also be the Sunday morning thought piece.What problem does bitcoin solve? How does it make the world better?Merryn posted those questions on Twitter yesterday.It being Twitter, as you might expect, as well some measured, sensible stuff, it met with a barrage of outrage too, with responses ranging in scope from “it’s a Ponzi scheme” to “it’s destroying the planet” to “it’s going to give us world peace”.I thought I’d answer Merryn’s questions today, sheltered from the mania of Twitter, in the calm surroundings of this blog.I have been trying, on and off, to orange-pill Merryn since about 2014 and I think it’s fair to say, Merryn gets it. She gets fiat money, inflation, money printing, the harm it does, all that stuff. Not only does she get it, she was several years ahead of most of us on that one. She gets the need for apolitical money, lower taxes, less state, less central banking, f

Over the last year, I’ve lost over 2 stone - 14kg or 30lb, to be precise. I say over the last year, truth is I’ve been trying, unsuccessfully, to lose weight for three years - in fact, since practically forever. Given that most of us want to be somewhat lighter than we are, I thought I’d share my experiences with you today. They may be of some use.BackgroundWhile I don’t really like going to the gym, I do quite a lot of exercise, I always have. I run, I play football, I walked the dog, but I always seemed to be 5-6kg (about a stone) heavy than is ideal. I have a sweet tooth, but not as bad as some. I like beer and I like wine (not so much of a spirit man). I also have a tendency to eat and drink late at night, particularly coming home after gigs. I suspect it was a combination of eating too late at night and booze which left me in that semi-permanent state of slightly heavier than I would like.I’ve tried all sorts of diets in the past. I lost loads of weight on the Atkins diet back in the early 2000s - that’

I’m delighted to report that The Flying Frisby is now a Substack Bestseller. Thank you to everyone who supports this bestselling publication!By popular demand, today we consider bitcoin - and the amazing story that is FTX.Gosh, this is some story - it’s difficult to know where to start. The more you dig in, the more that comes out. It’s a cautionary tale of the madness that engulfs crowds during investment manias and bubbles, of greed, delusion, risk, and more besides.I’m sure many of you already know the story, even though there are new developments every day, so I’ll recap it quickly, before moving on to what it means for bitcoin.Tell everyone you know about this amazing article.The story of FTXSam Bankman-Fried was a geeky young crypto “entrepreneur”, born to an upper-middle-class Jewish family in California. His parents were both professors at Stanford Law School. Ironic.In 2017 he set up the quantitative trading firm (that would be trading based on mathematical models) Alameda Research . Then, in 2019, c

A number of people have asked me to cover bitcoin after this week’s insanity - and I will very soon, I promise, but today we consider fossil fuels once again.While the oil and natural gas prices have not done a great deal these last six months - up a bit, down a bit, then sideways - the associated companies have done very well: the producers, the service companies and so on.Many years of bear market and belt-tightening are now paying off.However, we are not yet, I would suggest, at that point of excess and decadence that marks the end of a cycle - crazy mergers and acquisitions, insane valuations and Bacchanalian behaviour from the executive classes. So I venture today, as last week, that there is still plenty of gas left in the tank of this bull market.With that in mind I wanted to share a few charts with you today that give an idea of what is possible.Oil and gas stocks are on the rise The first of them shows the ratio between energy stocks and the rest of the market. Indeed, without energy stocks there wou

Today’s missive comes to you from the Galapagos Islands out in the eastern Pacific, where two stories of noble energy initiatives reflect the broader realities of energy policy around the world. We tell these stories with a specific question in mind: how much gas, so to speak, is left in the tank of this energy bull market?The Galapagos population is only around 30,000, but, as a fully functioning society, the same dynamics observed in this small ecosystem occur elsewhere, even if less visibly, so it serves as a useful case study.So we come to the first of our two stories.Not so green transport in GalapagosIn order to limit traffic, protect the environment in this most ecologically delicate of places and protect the taxi industry, the local government made it extremely difficult to get a vehicle licence. All sorts of problematic bureaucratic hurdles had to be jumped, and most people ended up using bikes or public transport.But then in 2016 the powers that be, with a brighter, greener future in mind, decided t

The highest form of charity, argued the 12th-century Jewish philosopher Maimonides, is when the help given enables the receiver to become self- sufficient.But our systems of state charity - aka welfare - have too frequently had the opposite effect: they have actually created dependency. It is time to re-think the way we help people.I suggest something that may be heinous to some, but it’s this: welfare would be more effective, more varied, more widespread and affordable if there were no state involvement.People instinctively think that without a welfare state, the poor and needy would not be looked after. At such an unacceptable prospect, people then become fervent in their defence of state welfare systems. You can see the passion people feel about this erupting all over the Twitter and the blogosphere.Before we start, I want you to get your head around one thought - suggesting that the welfare system is not working and that we should do away with it is not the same as suggesting the poor and needy should not

Money evolves constantly. Every day there is some tiny new fintech development, but it’s only when you take a step back and look at the ten-, twenty- or thirty-year  picture that you realise just how much things have changed. What is money today is a far cry from what was money when I was a child. Digital technology barely existed back then. We used cash and these things called cheques. You’ve probably heard of them.It’s not just what we use as money that evolves. How money is created - that changes too. And just this decade there has been a major evolution. That’s what I am going to talk about today.Thank you for reading The Flying Frisby. This post is public so feel free to share it.The creation of money and debtOnce upon a time you would create money by mining gold and silver. But debt-based money systems have also existed since the dawn of civilization, when clay tokens representing valuable items such as barley or sheep would be baked inside clay balls. When the debt was settled the clay balls would be s