Stuff That Interests Me

As long-time readers/sufferers will know, at the beginning of the new year I like to make some predictions for the 12 months ahead. The bolder the prediction, the more entertaining the copy, though the less likely it is to actually happen. Herein lies the eternal conflict at the heart of so much market commentary. What is more important: getting lots of eyeballs or being right? Today we mark our own homework. We look back at last year’s effort and we count up the points. The scoring system: 2 points for a direct hit, 1 point for a nearly right, 0 for a fail and minus 1, if the prediction is David-Lammy-on-Mastermind-level bad. (For those readers not familiar with David Lammy, he is a UK politician from the “everyone who does not agree with me is a Nazi” school of philosophy, who appeared on one of the UK’s flagship quizzes and was really, really bad). I like this exercise because it demonstrates just how much perspective can change over time. While we can change strategy as events develop, the copy from last

I was having a coffee with an Anglo-Italian friend of mine the other day, and he began telling me about his grand-parents. They were “contadini”, which translates literally as “peasants”, though the term peasant does not have such pejorative connotations in Italy as it does here. They called themselves “mezzadri” or “sharecroppers”. A landowner allowed them to work his land, in exchange for half of everything they produced on it. The other half they got to keep. Selling that half of the produce was how they got money. My friend’s family had been doing this for generations, never actually breaking above that status to become landowners themselves.There are many parallels to the mediaeval serf, who had to work the land of his lord in exchange for his subsistence and protection. Just as the serf was the descendent of the Roman slave, so was the contadino the descendent of the serf, though contadini were not as subjugated, except by their circumstances.It is not so different to the plight of the young western wor

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comThis piece started out as an introduction to bitcoin, which a publication asked me to write. They then jerked me around, so I am posting it here instead. Ah! The beauty of owning the means of production. It will be old hat to some of you, but hopefully you will enjoy it nonetheless.Before we start, let me just flag:* Sunday’s thought piece - Why So Many Bad Decisions - got a great response from readers, but I messed up the email, so not everybody saw it. (The dangers owning the means of production). But check it out, if you haven’t already.* If you’re looking for Christmas pressies, we have some fun stocking fillers in the form of my new album, It’s ALL True, old albums and tickets to live shows in the spring. More info here. In particular, as always, I recommend Kisses on a Postcard.Right. Off we go.It is now almost 15 years since Satoshi Nakamoto announced his new invention, bitcoin, to the world. Since then it has grown an

Good Sunday morning to you,Today’s piece is all about decision-making and the decline of family in the west.Before I crack on, I just wanted to flag a couple of things.Wearing my comedy hat, I’m taking An Evening of Curious Songs on a mini tour in the spring - shows in London (Crazy Coqs), Somerset, Surrey, Essex and Hampshire. Tickets make great Christmas pressies, so please take a look.And my new album, It’s ALL True, is out. CDs also make great Christmas pressies for errant uncles, so check that out too in the DF shop.So to today’s piece - Why so many bad decisions?I’ve recently been looking at my family tree on one of those ancestry websites, and I was amazed to see just how big some of the families were in 19th and early 20th Century England. Having nine or 10 brothers and sisters was not unusual.Today, families are much smaller. All sorts of reasons have been proffered for that. Matt Ridley argues that families get smaller as people grow wealthier and live longer. In poorer countries, you might have lot

This post now in video form This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This post in video form This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Good Sunday morning to you,Last week’s thought piece on the inexorable rise of the Far Right has become my most read Substack ever. Check it out, if you haven’t already.Today we continue on a similar theme.Enjoy!I’m currently working on a new book about gold, and, as gold often leads to war - or is it the other way round? - I’ve found myself reading rather a lot about conquerors and conquest. There are certain things all conquerors do, from invade to plunder to strip the conquered of their wealth, power, history and identity. What is so bizarre about today in Britain and Western Europe is that we are doing all these things to ourselves, voluntarily. Let me explain.As the armies of Alexander the Great marched east, overpowering all who stood in their way to form probably the first great empire the world had ever known and, in terms of land mass, one of the biggest (even to this day), the annihilation of the cultural identities of those they conquered soon followed. Locals were raped, pillaged, subjugated and e

Good morning to you,Sunday’s piece on the inexorable rise of the far right and what to do about it has struck quite a few nerves. Check it out here, if you haven’t already.In today’s piece - considerably less political - which was first published in Moneyweek last Friday, we consider the sorry state of junior mining.Enjoy!DominicMining is infamously cyclical. But if ever there was an industry that blows desert hot and arctic cold, it is the subsector of small cap and early-stage companies known as junior miners. And boy has it been blowing cold.Many of the old hands are saying this is the worst bear market they have ever known. Worse than the 2013-15, when junior mining had a near-death experience, following the boom of the 2000s; worse than the bear market of the 1990s that came with colossally depressed metals prices at the end of a 20-year bear market and then the Bre-X scandal. Bre-X was one of the scams of the century. The Canadian gold mining company falsified gold samples from its mine in the middle of

I was never particularly interested in politics growing up. My father was an active social democrat, and I remember him jumping up and down with excitement when the SDP was formed, as David Owen, Roy Jenkins, and Shirley Williams broke away from the Labour Party. Even as a student, I never got interested beyond having a feeling that something wasn’t right. I felt I should be left-wing - that that was the right thing to be, but I never felt particularly engaged, only alienated. My vague understanding of political ideology was that Stalin and the Bolsheviks were far left and Hitler and the Nazis were far right - I didn’t realise Nazi meant national socialist back then - but that far left and far right were actually quite close in philosophy. Horseshoe theory, basically.It seemed actual far right was something that didn’t really exist in the UK. There was Oswald Mosley, but he was a bit of a laughing stock, and the National Front was tiny and ineffectual. In my mid-to-late 30s, as a result of studying gold, sou

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comGood morning to you from sunny California, where I am visiting my dear mother.If you missed them last week:* Check out my interview with Lyn Alden.* As well as the silver stock with a 47 million ounce surprise. * And, if you are thinking about buying gold in these uncertain times, be sure to speak to The Pure Gold Company.Today, though, it’s the stock market. We think it’s going up. Now could be the time to invest. Here’s why …The tricky month of October, the month of choice for the stock market crash, is now behind us. There was a wobble. A very wobbly wobble. But the blob held. The stage is now set for a juicy rally into year end.November to January is, historically, the best three month period of the year for the S&P500, the index of the largest 500 companies in America, while November to April is the best six month period. We are at the beginning of that run.If you bought the Dow Jones Industrial Average on November 1

An engaging conversation with financial expert Lyn Alden as we explore the past, present, and potential future of money through the lens of technology.Lyn's new book, Broken Money, challenges conventional wisdom about monetary systems, emphasizing the crucial role of technology in shaping the way we exchange value. From the significance of the printing press and the telegraph to the rise of Bitcoin, we discuss into the intricate relationship between technology and money; the impact of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and how Bitcoin fits into the financial landscape. A thought-provoking conversation about the evolving world of finance.Subscribe to this amazing publication. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I went to the ARC conference yesterday - to give it its full name the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship. It is an organisation set up by Jordan Peterson, Paul Marshall, Philippa Stroud, Alan McKormick and others to “develop a better narrative in response to life’s most fundamental social, economic, philosophical and cultural questions”. I spent much of the day taking notes, and I thought I’d write them up here so that readers can enjoy a distilled version, without the rigours of having to travel to the depths of London SE and sitting through a lot of talking.“What’s it like?” Merryn Somerset Webb texted on her way in that morning. “A bit like a religious gathering,” I replied, (something Tim Stanley also observed in a barbed piece in the Telegraph). I’m quite happy with that, because I am one of the believers. I have to say the organisers have put together quite a roster of speakers, one massive oversight aside, which was not having me speak.Philippa Stroud and Jordan Petersen hosted the morning events, wh

Good morning to you,We are talking Japanese currency today.First, in case you missed them last week, check out:The story of my pilgrimage got a big and positive response from readers. This piece on the true value of UK housing also got a big response.If you haven’t already, and if speculative silver mining stocks are of interest: watch this interview with Alex Langer of Sierra Madre Gold and Silver. And, finally, a big thank you to all who came to my gold lecture on Thursday. What a great night. A reminder that due to sell-outs, we have added some extra London dates - February 14th and 15th. You can get tickets here.Right, the yen. I can’t help thinking there are some real opportunities coming …The currency has been weak as hell for a long time. Against the US dollar it is at lows not seen since this century. We all know what a rotten currency the pound has been. It has lost a third of its purchasing power just since 2020. A third! Against the constant that is gold, it has lost 90% of its purchasing power s

Before we get started today, if you haven’t already seen it, check out my interview with Alex Langer of Sierra Madre. There could be quite an opportunity setting up with this silver mining company.And if you haven’t read this piece on UK (and US) house prices yet, you might like it - it’s proved quite popular. Right. The Eighth Wonder of the World …How can you turn a tiny sum into a large one?Speculate in small caps is one way. The problem is you risk losing your shirt.There is another, safer path. All you need is time - lots of it - and some discipline.You will often hear it said that time in the market is more important than timing the market. There is a lot of wisdom to the adage, though, in defence of timing, get it right and you gain significant advantage. The underlying wisdom of the adage derives from the power of compounding, what Albert Einstein called the eighth wonder of the world. “He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it,” he is said to have said. (It is one of those attributed qu

Here is an interview with Alex Langer, CEO of Sierra Madre Gold and Silver. This video was exclusive to paid subscribers, but I am now releasing it for one and all.I own stock in this company. I know that we are in the thralls of a really bad junior mining bear market, and thus that you might not have the appetite for speculative silver development plays, but I still think there might be an opportunity here. Have a listen. (You can listen to it above or via Apple podcasts, Spotify or your regular podcast provider). See what you think. If you prefer you can watch the video of the interview. The transcript is here. My previous notes on the company are here and here. (My guide to investing in silver is here, and if you want to buy physical, here is where to go).Sierra Madre Gold and Silver (SM.V)Share price: C$0.36cFully diluted: 148m sharesMarket Cap: C$59mCash: US$9mYou can find out more about Sierra Madre here. Buying Canadian stocksIf you don’t have a broker who can deal with Canadian stocks, Interactive Inv

Before we get started today, if you haven’t already seen it, check out my interview with Alex Langer of Sierra Madre. There could be quite an opportunity setting up with this silver mining company.There are just a handful of tickets left for my lecture with funny bits about gold in London on October 19. I’m not sure when I will next be doing this show so book early to avoid disappointment and all that.And, if you haven’t yet seen Programmable Money, I think you will be amused.Right, house prices. They are in free fall …“Fastest fall in 14 years” said the Guardian on the back of the latest numbers from the Halifax, which reported year-on-year falls of 4.7%. The Telegraph was similarly gloomy. ”London house prices slump,” said City AM. “6 months of consecutive declines,” noted the FT. The latest Nationwide numbers showing declines of 5.3% are even worse.But, some context. Here are house prices since 1950. Relentless. The current declines are a mere blip, though it may not fee like that. I have long-argued that

There is an absolutely stellar line up of speakers at New Orleans Investment Conference in November: Dave Collum, Rick Rule, Matt Taibbi, Peter Schiff, Konstantin Kisin, Lyn Alden, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Rickards and many more besides, yours truly among them.So I got together with Brien Lundin, the organizer, to chat about the event, as well as to get his take on the state of the markets. You can listen to this conversation here, or via Apple podcasts, Spotify or your regular podcast provider. Ths video version of the conversation is here.If you happen to be in that neck of the woods, please come and say hi. I hope to see you there. It’s a great event: New Orleans is unique.And if New Orleans is too far to travel, there is always my gold show in London on October 18th. This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comWhen it comes to investment returns, asset allocation, as I said on Monday, has repeatedly proven to matter more than individual stock picking: the market you choose matters more than the companies you select within that market. With this in mind, if you haven’t already, check out the pieces I have recently put together about portfolio allocation:* My own…

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comBefore we begin, a quick reminder of two shows I have coming up in London: There are about 15 tickets left for the musical show next Wednesday September 27th at Crazy Coqs in Piccadilly Circus. I can’t stress enough what a laugh these shows are: full band, great sound, plush venue, delicious food (Brasserie Zedel), lots of LOLs and several new songs, which will be making their debut. You can get tickets here.And my “lecture with funny bits” about gold is coming to the West End for one night only on October 19th is the date. It’s super interesting. You can get tickets here. Hopefully, see you at one or the other or both.But, after a lot of hype, here it is: the do-very-little portfolio.Lots of us have busy lives. We don’t have time to constantly monitor companies, markets, technological developments, politics and all the rest of it. We have other things going on that we prefer to or have to devote our attention to.Yet we want

A quick heads up before we come to today’s piece: I am taking my “lecture with funny bits” about gold to the West End for one night only. October 19th is the date. (That’s the show I did at the Edinburgh Fringe). If you like gold, you will like this show. I promise. It’s super interesting. You can get tickets here. Hopefully, see you there.So, continuing the recent theme of portfolio allocation, today we talk cockroaches …I narrated a documentary once about cockroaches. Never mind the repulsion we may feel towards them, they really are the most amazing creatures. In fact, that repulsion may work in their favour because nobody wants anything to do with them, thereby bettering their chances of survival.  Cockroaches have been around since before the dinosaurs. According to Wikipedia, they are some 320 million years old, having originated during the Carboniferous period. They are hardy as hell. They can survive and thrive in tropical heat or in freezing, sub-Arctic temperatures below minus one hundred degrees (F