Impunity Observer

Jair Viana—economist and research director at the Colombian Libertank policy institute—explains the importance of a free-market economy for development. He contends that the freest cities in Colombia, such as Montería, have been economically growing at a rapid clip relative to larger cities. Viana also explains how Bogotá, despite having the highest taxes and the least economic freedom in the country, has the largest number of private businesses. That number of companies, he says, would grow exponentially if authorities were to cut through the red tape. For Viana, the upcoming local elections on October 29 will have crucial effects on economic freedom in every city. He contends that only a few candidates offer to lower taxes and encourage the private sector. Instead, most candidates, in line with President Gustavo Petro’s socialist ideals, promote the redistribution of wealth and undermine the role of private businesses in the economy. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/10/10/how-colombia-cities-

Arturo Damm Arnal—economics and philosophy professor at Panamerican University in Mexico—explains how a coalition of three traditional parties will challenge Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Morena party. The National Action Party (PAN), the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have named Xóchitl Gálvez, an indigenous woman, as their presidential candidate for the June 2024 election. Damm Arnal contends the main difference between Gálvez and Morena candidate Claudia Sheinbaum is that Gálvez understands and favors the role of business in the economy. For Damm Arnal, although Sheinbaum started the electoral race as the clear favorite, it is still too early to predict the winner. The election's importance, though, is clear: the upcoming election will be fundamental to recovering the separation of powers in Mexico, which the incumbent administration has undermined. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/09/25/two-female-candidates-show-realignment-of-mexican-po

Join our Deputy Editor Mauro Echeverría, who will discuss his latest insights regarding Ecuador's insecurity crisis. Recommended links: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/06/01/why-ecuador-law-enforcement-is-no-match-for-narcos/ https://impunityobserver.com/2022/10/31/the-origins-of-escalating-violence-in-ecuador/

Alisa Gray—interim training and assessment specialist at the Voting System Technical Oversight Program (VSTOP)—and Chad Kinsella—co-director of VSTOP—visited Guatemala as foreign electoral observers. They explain the role of foreign observers in the Guatemalan general elections on June 25. Further, Gray and Kinsella describe the main procedural differences between elections in Guatemala and Indiana, United States. These differences include the use of paper ballots and manual vote counting in Guatemala instead of digital processes in Indiana. For Gray and Kinsella, some Guatemalans were frustrated with the presidential candidates on the ballot, which could explain the large number of void and blank votes. In addition, they contend that voting polls in Guatemala had the presence of multiple parties’ representatives. Gray added that the observers’ trip from Indiana to Guatemala was an important educational experience. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/07/25/what-indiana-observers-saw-at-the-guatem

Chiara Barchiesi—Chilean congresswoman and founder of the Republican Party—explains that citizens rejected the previous constitutional draft because it ignored the country’s reality and key principles such as the rule of law. She contends that the Republican Party—which has 22 of 51 advisers that will write the new constitutional draft—will work for the people and their problems. Barchiesi, who was elected when she was 24 years old, says the Republican Party is open to negotiations with leftist parties during the ongoing constitutional process. On the other hand, she contends there are principles such as freedom and private property that cannot be dismissed. Barchiesi adds that the Gabriel Boric administration lied to Chileans during the electoral campaign and they are realizing it. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/07/13/chile-republican-party-founder-seeks-citizen-unity-spanish/

Read the analysis in English: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/06/24/why-indianas-latino-secretary-of-state-backs-voter-id/ Lee el análisis en español: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/06/24/por-que-el-secretario-de-estado-latino-de-indiana-respalda-la-identificacion-del-votante/

For Agustín Etchebarne—director at the Freedom and Progress Foundation—Argentines have the opportunity to change the country’s course in the October 2023 presidential election. He explains how Javier Milei's rise, as a classical-liberal economist and presidential candidate, will take votes from both the Peronistas and the Mauricio Macri-led opposition. Either way, there will most likely be a runoff between the final two candidates. Etchebarne asserts that the next president, if he manages to reduce public spending, will face stiff opposition from crony-oriented lobbies and the media. He also contends that Argentines perceive the economic crisis as the country's chief policy challenge. However, increasing crime is a second priority for citizens. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/06/13/javier-milei-is-a-game-changer-agustin-etchebarne/

For Emmanuel Rincón—senior editor at Americano Media—María Corina Machado is the best option to face Nicolás Maduro in next year’s presidential election. Machado is leading in the polls for the 2023 opposition primary election in Venezuela, and Rincón contends that most opposition members are controlled opposition: socialists who promote leftist policies. An electoral victory by this “fake” opposition would only offer new faces, while the failed socialist structure would remain in place. Regarding the relationship between the United States and Venezuela, Rincón explains that the Joe Biden administration is providing oxygen to the Chavista regime by easing sanctions on oil exports. In addition, the US government released two of Maduro’s nephews, who were sentenced to more than eight years in prison for narcotrafficking. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/05/15/emmanuel-rincon-maria-corina-machado-is-true-opposition-leader/

For Daniel Runde—director of the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)—the Chinese regime has met infrastructure and economic demands that US aid to Latin America has overlooked. He warns that China seeks global dominance in economic spheres, with negative implications for Western values. Runde, author of The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership through Soft Power (2023), contends that China’s ballooning presence in Latin America portends significant changes in power dynamics worldwide. He also asserts the United States has not been reciprocal with Guatemala, one of the US most steadfast allies that still recognizes Taiwan. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/04/11/the-united-states-must-use-soft-power-to-counter-chinese/

Rafael Curruchiche—Guatemalan special prosecutor against impunity since August 2021—shares how the Special Prosecutor’s Office against Impunity (FECI) has been used in previous years to persecute political opponents. For example, former FECI chief Juan Francisco Sandoval—praised on multiple occasions by the US State Department—has four active arrest warrants for abuse of authority, breach of duty, and obstruction of judicial processes. Curruchiche contends his own inclusion on the Engel List of purportedly corrupt and/or antidemocratic actors is mainly a political decision of the US State Department. He has not been able to present his side of the story. Unlike those who prepare the Engel List, Curruchiche believes public workers in FECI must follow due process and set a precedent of robust legal cases. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/03/15/guatemalan-prosecutor-alleges-persecution-state-department/

Mauricio Alarcón-Salvador—the executive director of the Foundation for Citizenship and Development (FCD)—explains why Ecuadorians rejected President Guillermo Lasso’s referendum in the February 5 elections. It included proposals to allow the extradition of Ecuadorian drug traffickers and to reduce congressmen from 137 to 121. He also contends that Correísmo has become the largest political force in the country after the elections. Due to nationwide discontent, Alarcón-Salvador fears Lasso might not be able to finish his term, which is supposed to end in 2025. For Alarcón-Salvador, the Lasso administration will continue to face a governability crisis for its remaining years in power. He adds that the increase in electoral violence directly correlates with the exponential growth of narcopolitics in Ecuador. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/02/09/the-rising-specter-of-rafael-correa-over-ecuador-spanish/

Ricardo Escudero—editor of Minuto Digital Peru and founder of the Savings Institute—explains how former Peruvian President Pedro Castillo’s tenure came to an abrupt end in December 2022, after several corruption investigations against him and his family. Escudero contends that Castillo, in desperation, tried to implement a communist dictatorship in Peru but failed. Escudero believes Dina Boluarte’s presidency remains tenuous. He highlights, however, that Boluarte is removing all the far-left officials from her cabinet. Escudero emphasizes the need for Peruvians to actively participate in politics to avoid the implementation of another authoritarian government in the near future. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2023/01/12/perus-political-crisis-explained-spanish/

Joanna Guerra—a lawyer, philosopher, and director of Ladies of Liberty Alliance and Fundación Federalismo y Libertad in Mexico—discusses the electoral reform Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) proposed to Congress. For Guerra, the proposed reform was a threat to democracy and a step backward in the country’s efforts to maintain political alternation. Guerra also analyzes how the AMLO administration will act after Congress rejected the proposal on December 6. AMLO’s plan B includes smaller reforms and laws without modifying the Constitution, as originally intended. Guerra believes the discussion is far from over and that Mexicans will still have to fight to defend their democracy. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2022/12/15/amlos-next-steps-to-transform-mexicos-electoral-system/

Mauro Echeverría, deputy editor and researcher at the Impunity Observer, visited Cuba in October to report on the island’s political and economic situation. Interviewees told Echeverría that citizens struggle with dire shortages of food, gasoline, and medicine. Similarly, electricity blackouts throughout the day are now a standard feature of life. Cubans no longer trust the regime, which is evident with daily protests across the island. For Echeverría, internet access has strongly influenced the views about the Communist Party dictatorship. In addition to contrasting their lifestyle with other nations, Cubans can get information from alternative sources and use social media to organize resistance. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2022/11/16/what-cubans-want-the-world-to-know/

Maria Zuppello—an Italian journalist and political analyst living in Sao Paulo, Brazil, for over a decade—discusses why Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro outperformed the polls. His main contender, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, won the election with 48 percent of the votes, with Bolsonaro only 5 percent behind. Zuppello argues that, despite Lula still being the favorite to win the presidency, the scenario is uncertain. She believes Lula failed to present a coherent plan to Brazilians, which could take a toll in the runoff on October 30. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2022/10/17/brazil-one-step-away-from-picking-its-socialist-poison/

Join our Editor at Large Steve Hecht, who will discuss his latest insights regarding the United States and Latin America.

Alejandra Moreno—data analyst, chemical engineer, and chapter leader of Ladies of Liberty Alliance (LOLA) in Medellin—analyzes Gustavo Petro’s plans of reform, including an energy transition in Colombia. She explains, however, that an energy transition is not urgent, because Colombia is a leading producer of clean energy in the region. Moreno also discusses the tax reform that Petro and the Historical Pact—his political party—have proposed. She explains how the negotiations between the FARC guerrilla and the government in 2016 have resulted in the imminent creation of an agricultural reform that would redistribute land through expropriation with compensation. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2022/09/30/how-ideology-dictates-gustavo-petros-energy-policy/

On August 22, Ocean Builders launched their ecofriendly land and sea pods (houses) in Linton Bay Marina, Panama. With 3D-printed architecture and high-tech infrastructure, Ocean Builders is manufacturing an innovative and self-sustainable lifestyle. In this episode, Grant Romundt—CEO at Ocean Builders—explains why they chose Panama as the destination to start the groundbreaking business. Romundt, who has lived in sea pods for over five years, shares his experience living closer to nature in a cutting-edge way. He also reveals that other countries are asking Ocean Builders to start building pods. His priority, however, remains in Panama, where the firm has contributed to community development. Creating skilled and high-tech jobs—and training locals—Ocean Builders has become the largest employer in the area. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2022/09/07/ocean-builders-bring-innovative-frontier-lifestyle-to-panama/

Join our Editor at Large Steve Hecht, who will discuss his latest insights regarding the United States and Latin America.

Cristina Villagómez—a legislative advisor in Chile’s constitutional convention—argues the new proposed constitution would undermine the rule of law and threaten fundamental rights. It is similar to those approved over the last two decades in Bolivia, Venezuela, and Ecuador: an extensive positive-rights (entitlements) document. After witnessing for 10 years the poor performance of the new constitution in her home country of Ecuador, Villagómez concludes that Chile’s proposed constitution would not lead to the expected outcomes. Chileans supported a new Magna Carta to pursue further liberty and economic opportunities, but the final document is unclear and ambiguous. Moreover, some proposed constitutional provisions could be used against the population by authoritarian regimes. Although recent polls reveal significant opposition to the new constitution, Villagómez clarifies Chileans will have to wait until September 4 to find the definitive results. Show notes: https://impunityobserver.com/2022/08/31/chiles-c