Squawk Box Europe Express

JPMorgan sees Q1 profits slump by 42 per cent. The bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon explains that inflation and the war in Ukraine are “powerful forces that threaten the economy” and that could potentially cause recession. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq snap three-day losing streaks as producers prices soar at their fastest rate on record. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says the central bank must continue to work to bring inflation down. Ukraine is to receive up to $800m of heavy military aid from the U.S as the conflict intensifies in the east of the country. In energy news, crude prices are down after initially surging during yesterday’s session on fears over supply chain disruption and Russian oil.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. CPI hits its highest level since 1981 with energy and food prices soaring. But the core inflation read provides hope that price pressures may be peaking. President Joe Biden blames Russian president Vladimir Putin for the hike in costs. Biden also labels the Russian invasion of Ukraine as ‘genocide’ for the first time, while Putin declares peace talks with Kiev are at a ‘dead end’. Sino-Russian trade, meanwhile, rises almost 30 per cent in Q1 but imports from elsewhere are hampered by continuing supply chain disruption. And in luxury news, LVMH enjoys renewed demand for labels Dior and Louis Vuitton but CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony says the outlook in China remains opaque.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. equities tumble ahead of today’s inflation report with CPI forecast to hit its highest level in 41 years. All non-essential U.S. consular staff are ordered to leave Shanghai whose 25 million residents are locked down, battling the country’s worst Covid outbreak since the start of the pandemic. We speak exclusively to Mercedes Benz chairman, Ola Källenius, who says that the recent conflict-related spike in energy prices is a “wake-up call” for Europe. This, as OPEC nations warn the EU that Russian crude volumes would be almost impossible to substitute with further sanctions risking what could lead to one of the most damaging supply shocks ever.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the French presidential elections with both candidates increasing their voting share from 5 years ago. Some polls are predicting a Macron victory within the margin of error, but a member of Le Pen’s Rassamblement National tells CNBC his party is confident it can pick up votes from unsuccessful candidates. We are live in Paris for the latest. In China, consumer prices surge at their fastest pace in 3 months amid continuing disruptions to supply chains and high energy costs. And in Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has welcomed EU and UK leaders in Kiev over the weekend, while his country braces for a massive new Russian assault in the east.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The UNGA has voted to expel Russia from its Human Rights Council while NATO members have announced additional arms supply to Ukraine. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that, with the fighting shifting to the Donbas, the conflict is entering a new, intensified phase. In France, last-minute campaigning ahead of the Sunday’s presidential election first round sees Marine Le Pen closing the gap in the polls on incumbent Emmanuel Macron. France’s Minister for Transformation and Public Services, Amelie de Montchalin, tells CNBC a Le Pen presidency would weaken and damage France. And at Tesla’s Cyber Rodeo, CEO Elon Musk pledges to make half a million Model Y SUVs a year at the EV maker’s new plant in Texas.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Fed’s March meeting minutes indicate policy makers might be willing to adopt a more aggressive tightening schedule than previously thought. FOMC members are broadly in agreement to slash $95bn per month from the balance sheet over three months, probably starting in May. Half-point rate hikes are also highly likely to come into effect in future meetings. U.S. equities fall as a result, while the 10-year Treasury yield hits a three-year high. Back in Europe, EU nations have stopped short of a consensus on banning Russian oil outright as Washington takes aim at the Russian financial system and President Vladimir Putin’s family. With just three days to go before the first round of the French presidential election, we speak to Laurent Jacobelli, Grand Est regional president for Marine Le Pen’s RN party, who says the country “needs and wants change” after President Emmanuel Macron’s five years in power.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-

The U.S. moves to ban Russian investment and crack down on the country’s banks and state firms. Across the Atlantic, the EU launches a fifth round of sanctions aimed at coal exports and shipping. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy calls on the UN Security Council to launch Nuremburg-style trials to punish alleged Russian war crimes in his country. Meanwhile, U.S. and Asian markets take a dip, after Fed vice-chair nominee Lael Brainard indicates the central bank may seek more aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat inflation. And in China, the services sector has shrunk at its fastest rate in two years amid ongoing Covid lockdowns.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukraine has accused Russian troops of war crimes after hundreds of civilian deaths were revealed in Kyiv satellite towns. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has been joined by world leaders in condemnation of the alleged atrocities. European Union leaders promise more sanctions, while the bloc doubles down on its rejection of President Putin’s decree that all payments for Russian gas be made in rubles. The EU’s Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni has told CNBC that Brussels intends to strictly enforce energy contracts. Meanwhile, French electoral campaigns are heating up for May’s presidential vote. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron has seen his lead slashed with National Rally’s Marine Le Pen rising in opinion polls. In Hong Kong, CEO Carrie Lam has announced she will not seek a second term in office citing family commitments. And in autos news, Tesla reports a stellar first quarter, despite supply chain issues and a shutdown at its Shanghai plant.   See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/priva

Vladimir Putin issues a presidential decree to demand that “unfriendly” nations pay for energy bills in Russian rubles or have their supplies suspended. We are live on the shores of Lake Como where CEO of the European House Ambrosetti, Valerio De Molli, tells CNBC Europe’s energy strategy in the face of Russian aggression has been “naïve”. In the U.S., President Biden announces he will again tap American emergency oil reserves, releasing up to 1m barrels a day in a bid to calm pump prices. Investors are braced for today’s U.S. non-farm payroll job numbers as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge reaches a 40-year high. And, Beijing extends Shanghai’s staggered Covid lockdown, affecting manufacturing activity.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Crude prices fall on news that President Biden will release the largest ever volume of strategic oil reserves – the third time in six months. There are intelligence reports that Russian military top brass is deliberately misinforming President Vladimir Putin about personnel and territorial losses in Ukraine. Chinese March economic data suffers a double-whammy in March with both manufacturing and services contracting for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. And in the U.S., markets are due to end Q1 following their worst performance since the start of 2020.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russian negotiators announce there will be a dramatic scale-back of troops around Kiev after Ukraine agrees to take a neutral position regarding NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees. The Istanbul talks are met with scepticism. U.S. President Joe Biden says he is adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. U.S. markets, however, close higher on hopes of tensions easing. Following a short inversion of the 2 and 10-year yields, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker tells CNBC that the move does not accurately predict a coming recession. We also hear from Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio who says the West must maintain pressure on Moscow to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says his country will not trade off its sovereignty but he hopes a ceasefire will result from today’s peace talks in Istanbul. U.S. President Joe Biden doubles down on his ad-libbed comments at the weekend regarding leadership change in Russia. G-7 nations have rejected Russia’s demand to be paid in rubles. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner says he will not stand for Moscow’s “blackmail”. Oil continues to plummet with Shanghai in its second day of lockdown while UAE energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei tells this channel that Russia will remain a key player in Opec+. And the gap between the U.S. two- and ten-year treasury yields narrows to its lowest level since March 2020, raising recession fears.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russia and Ukraine are set for renewed peace talks in Istanbul today. The White House battles the fallout from U.S. President Joe Biden’s Warsaw speech, denying it is targeting regime change in Moscow. We speak to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyannée who says his company will not do business with Russian President Vladimir Putin but defends his refusal to completely write off the company’s Russian assets. Qatari foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani says his country is boosting its gas exports to other nations as the Ukraine conflict continues.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Biden warns Russia of a strong response from NATO should it use WMDs in Ukraine. He touted the alliance’s renewed sense of unity, announcing fresh sanctions on Moscow and promising humanitarian aid to Kiev. The NATO, G-7 and EU meetings were dominated by talk of China’s tepid attitude to Russian aggression. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg tells CNBC that Beijing must join the international response in condemning the conflict. Washington has assured Europe of LNG deliveries by the end of 2022 and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tells this channel that speeding up his country’s energy mix is key to moving away from reliance on Russia. We also hear exclusively from French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, who says that the Ukraine conflict has ended the “happy, naïve” model of globalisation”.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

One month after the invasion of Ukraine, NATO leaders hold another emergency meeting in Brussels with new measures expected to be introduced. President Biden is to hold a series of summits with allies promising a serious reinforcement of the bloc’s eastern flank while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warns of the long-term security consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that all gas supplies to “unfriendly countries” must now be paid for in rubles. And, as Western sanctions and collapsing imports begin to take effect, the IIF has predicted that the war will cost Russia 15 years of economic growth. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has called out French companies to quit their operations in Russia. Car giant Renault subsequently pulls out of the country and downgrades it margin outlook.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield spikes to its highest level since 2019 on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s recent hawkish comments. Asian equities, however, enjoy a three-week high with the Nikkei leading gains for the session. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn warns CNBC of a coming recession “or worse” as runaway U.S. inflation is compounded by the Ukraine invasion. CNBC learns that the EU is now unlikely to achieve unanimity on a Russian oil embargo with only a minority of member states supporting the move. The bloc will look for alternative methods to increase sanctions on Moscow. U.S. President Joe Biden heads to Brussels promising to target members of the Russian Duma with further restrictions and to offer refuge to fleeing Ukrainians. And in tech news, Elon Musk opens Tesla’s first European gigafactory near Berlin.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issues a stark warning about rising inflation, saying he is prepared to ‘move more aggressively’ if necessary. U.S. markets tumble and 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2019 as a result. U.S. President Joe Biden believes that as the Ukraine conflict continues, desperation may lead to President Putin to using chemical or biological weapons in the country. President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says that any resolution to end the war with Russia would require a referendum. The EU says it is ready to increase sanctions on Russia, with agreement on a full oil embargo looking increasingly likely.   See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukraine rejects Russian demands to surrender Mariupol as fighting intensifies in the besieged south-eastern city, while Russian forces cut the region off from the Sea of Azov amid a growing humanitarian crisis. China deflects criticism, insisting it is on the "right side of history" over the invasion of Ukraine, as President Biden warns of consequences if Beijing provides material support to Moscow, while China's Foreign Minister hits back at U.S. interference. U.S. and European stocks log their best week since 2020, but Asian equities start the week lower as the Fed-driven relief rally seems to fade. And, Germany agrees to a new long-term energy partnership with Qatar, as Europe's biggest economy looks to wean itself of its dependency on Russian energy.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken dials up the pressure on China ahead of talks between Presidents Biden and Xi, slamming Beijing for refusing to condemn Russian aggression in Ukraine. Nato, meanwhile continues to reinforce its Eastern flank. We are live at an Estonian military base, where the Russian threat seems to have galvanised the alliance. Moscow avoids defaulting on its dollar- denominated interest bond repayments with JPMorgan reportedly processing the funds. In other market news, the VIX slumps to a one-month low which in turn helps U.S. markets turn positive for the week – their first in six – while crude prices surge past the $100-mark once again. Chinese President Xi vows to help ease the economic pain caused by his zero-Covid policy despite daily cases rising to their worst level since the start of the outbreak in the country. And in France, President Emmanuel Macron kicks off his re-election campaign by casting himself as a war-time leader.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy an

The U.S. Federal Reserve hikes rates for the first time since 2018 and indicates that there are six more to come in 2022. Wall Street jumps at the close on Chairman Jerome Powell’s assertion that the U.S. will likely avoid a recession. The central bank, however, downgrades growth forecasts while predicting core PCE will hit 4.1% at the end of the year. President Joe Biden calls Russia’s Vladimir Putin a “war criminal”, eliciting a sharp rebuke from the Kremlin. Washington approves up to $800m of military assistance to Kiev as Congress greets a video address by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy with a standing ovation. Zelenskyy tells NBC News that World War 3 may already be under way.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.