Squawk Box Europe Express

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says that talks with Moscow are becoming more realistic, admitting that NATO membership is unlikely. Zelenskyy hosted the prime ministers of Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia in Kiev. President Biden is to attend an extraordinary meeting with NATO leaders in Brussels next week. Meanwhile, Russia faces its first sovereign default on foreign currency debt in more than a century. Nickel trading will resume on the LSE which imposed a 5 per cent price move cap, after prices surged last week over continuing Russian supply fears. In Hong Kong, tech stocks rouse the Hang Seng after two days of huge declines while on Wall Street, the S&P 500 posts its first positive session in 4 days.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. and Chinese security officials hold seven-hour talks in Rome regarding the invasion of Ukraine but differing accounts of the meeting emerge. U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo tells CNBC there will be no let-up in sanctions pressure on Moscow. In Brussels, EU finance ministers agree to a fourth package of sanctions measures against Russia, including the removal of WTO ‘favoured nation’ status. We hear from German finance minister Christian Lindner who says Europe must be wary of risks to its own economy resulting from the conflict. Chinese tech stocks sell off for a second day after posting their worst session since 2008 amid a new Covid outbreak in several regions. However, retail sales and industrial output data help to beat expectations for January and February.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Washington and Beijing plan to hold high-level talks in Rome following reports that Russia has approached China for military equipment to support its Ukraine invasion. Moscow has also threatened to honour bond payments in rubles in retaliation to the freezing of more than half of its reserves. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva says that a Russian default is no longer “improbable”. Russian forces attack a military training base in western Ukraine, less than 30km from the Polish border, prompting Ukrainian President to once again call for NATO to close his country’s skies. Meanwhile, Asian markets are mixed. Australian and Japanese stocks surge but the Hang Seng plunges following renewed Covid cases and lockdowns in mainland China.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russian forces near the Ukrainian capital, while conditions within the besieged southern port city of Mariupol worsen following unsuccessful talks between foreign ministers Dmytro Kuleba and Sergei Lavrov. Asian markets are in the red with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng leading the losses following a poor session by tech stocks on Wall Street. Oil is on course to complete its worst-performing week since November. ECB President Christine Lagarde announces an acceleration in tapering amid price pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Stateside, inflation hits a new 40-year high with prices up by almost 8 per cent. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, however, is sanguine about the prospects of a recession. And we are live in Versailles where French President Emmanuel Macron hosts EU leaders to discuss energy independence and a unified response to Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukraine accuses Russia of genocide after its forces bombed a children’s hospital and maternity ward in the southern port city of Mariupol. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy suggested he has cooled on potential NATO membership ahead of talks between Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Antalya today. The S&P 500 posted its best day since June 2020 and the trading momentum pushed European equities to their biggest single-day gains for almost a year, with Asian stocks following suit. Oil has also recovered following a sharp decline. In corporate news, e-commerce giant Amazon has approved a 20-for-1 stock split as well as a $10bn share buyback.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. has banned all imports of Russian oil as sanctions against Moscow are tightened. President Biden has admitted that the move will impact Americans further at the gas pump. As Russian forces inch towards the Ukrainian capital, the director of the CIA, William Burns, warns of “an ugly next few weeks”. In the UK, the House of Commons is addressed by Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy who remains defiant, paraphrasing Winston Churchill in his speech. U.S. markets suffer another rollercoaster session, closing in the red. Gold surges on increased embargo and inflation fears. Meanwhile, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Pepsi and Starbucks have announced they are suspending operations in Russia.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russia has increased shelling in Ukraine but says it has offered ceasefires in several regions to allow for humanitarian corridors to operate. Kyiv, however, says Russian forces have fired on fleeing civilians. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy remains in the capital and vows to fight on. U.S. markets closed firmly in the red with the S&P 500 posting its worst session since October 2020. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has said an oil price embargo on his country could push crude prices to $300 per barrel, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz appears to cool on the prospect of a total import ban. German utility firm Uniper has written down €987m in Nord Stream 2 loan losses. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. and EU inch closer to banning Russian oil imports, sending crude prices to levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Asian equities plunge as a result with tech, consumer and autos weighing in particular. The Nikkei 225 posts its lowest level since late 2020. In Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy accuses Russian forces on firing at civilian evacuation corridors in the besieged port city of Mariupol. Russian President Vladimir Putin says that a NATO-enforced no-fly zone above Ukraine would be tantamount to a declaration of war.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

A fire at Europe’s largest nuclear plant rattles global markets after heavy fighting in Ukraine. Kyiv warns that an explosion at the site could dwarf the Chernobyl disaster ten times over. The U.S. activates its nuclear response team, and the EU’s Energy Commissioner, Kadri Simson, tells CNBC that targeting nuclear facilities would violate global regulations. We are live at NATO headquarters in Brussels as the alliance holds an emergency meeting in what will arguably be one of its most crucial days of diplomacy. And in the U.S. non-farm payrolls are set to show slowing job growth. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester tells CNBC that it’s critical the central bank gains control over inflation.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Dow snaps a two-day losing streak and Treasury yields surge after Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirms that a 25-basis point interest rate hike is still likely this month. Crude prices soar to highs not seen in around a decade as OPEC+ nations refuse to veer from a previously agreed gradual output increase. Russia claims to have captured the southern Ukrainian city Kherson, the first of its offensive. But Kyiv disputes the Kremlin’s claims. Ratings agencies Fitch and Moody’s downgrade Russian sovereign debt to junk status, and Russian stocks are removed from the MSCI and FTSE Russell indices.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Biden holds his first State of the Union address, slapping Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime with the closure of U.S. airspace. He also announces an SPR release in a bid to re-balance crude prices which have hit their highest level in almost nine years. In Kiev, Russian airstrikes target the main TV tower as a huge convoy continues to crawl towards the capital. And China has indicated that it could provide mediation between Ukraine and Russia to reach a ceasefire.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, suffers sustained bombardment after yesterday’s peace talks in Belarus stalled and slowing Russian infantry advances reportedly frustrate Russian President Vladimir Putin. We hear from Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba who says every Russian rouble is now stained with his countrymen’s blood as the West intensifies sanctions on Moscow. French President has held talks with EU chiefs and also speaks to Putin and Ukrainian president Volodomyr Zelenskyy. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due in Warsaw and Tallinn later today. Equinor and Shell follow BP in exiting Russian JVs and Volvo, Daimler and Mastercard also suspend activities in the country in response to the invasion.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Western allies launch a raft of new measures designed to hobble Russia’s economy following its invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions target the country’s central bank and lenders have been cut out of the SWIFT system. The rouble has collapsed to a fresh record low despite Russian central bank efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin has placed his nuclear deterrent forces on high alert ahead of proposed negotiations with Kiev along the Belarussian border. BP has dumped its 20 per cent stake in Rosneft in protest at the invasion. The move has prompted fears of a $25bn write-down. We are live in Moscow and Przmyśl on the Poland-Ukraine border, with an eye on the humanitarian crisis brewing as Ukrainians flee the fighting.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says Russian bombing has resumed, targeting both military and civilians throughout the country. The nation’s health ministry reports 57 casualties and up to 170 injuries. Western allies have outlined a huge package of sanctions designed to hit up to 70 per cent of Russian banks. However, EU leaders stop short of cutting Russia out of the SWIFT payment system. We’re live in Kraków, Poland and in Moscow where President Putin has met with business leaders as the sanctions begin to take effect. Markets see a late reversal in the U.S. and oil prices stabilise, albeit at levels not seen since 2014.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Putin launches a military invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba tells CNBC “this is an attack on the world order” as Kyiv calls an emergency UN Security Council session. President Biden pledges severe sanctions against Russia, and the sentiment is echoed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who calls the attack “a dark day for Europe”. Markets sell off with Brent crude surging beyond the $100 mark, while the ruble tumbles to a record low versus the dollar.    See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. President Joe Biden and Western allies impose a barrage of sanctions against the Kremlin and close associates, spooking markets with the S&P 500 sinking into correction territory. As part of the sanctions measures, Germany freezes the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline but former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warns of a “brave new world” of spiralling gas prices in Europe. The EU sanctions 351 Duma members and 27 other individuals or bodies suspected of undermining Ukrainian sovereignty. And in corporate news, Rio Tinto boasts its strongest balance sheet in 15 years amid surging global commodity prices.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Putin orders his forces into the rebel-held eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, sending Asian equities and U.S. futures into a nosedive. U.S. President Biden signs an executive order to slap sanctions on the breakaway regions, with further action promised – as well as from the UK and the EU. HSBC hikes guidance as FY profits more than double. And U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson lifts all Covid-era restrictions in England but warns that a virus resurgence remains a possibility. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Presidents Biden and Putin agree to in-person talks proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron. The White House, however, says the meeting is contingent on Russia not crossing into Ukrainian territory. Speaking to CNBC at the Munich Security Conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says he believes the West should refrain from revealing its sanctions plan for now – even as Ukraine’s President calls for immediate action. Swiss lender Credit Suisse is forced to defend its working practices following a data leak which reportedly shows it held accounts for a variety of criminals and sanctioned dictators. And in England, all Covid-era restrictions are set to be lifted as Prime Minister Johnson lays out his plan for living with the virus.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Dow suffers its biggest drop of the year, falling more than 600 points on renewed Russian-Ukrainian tensions. The White House claims Moscow is close to engineering a false-flag incident before invading, after border skirmishes. German insurance giant Allianz reports a Q4 loss on the back of a €3.7bn U.S. fund implosion charge. And Tesla CEO Elon Musk causes a storm on Twitter by likening Justin Trudeau to Adolf Hitler, before slamming the SEC, accusing it of attempting to curb his free speech in its oversight of his communications with stakeholders.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

We have a slew of European earnings today. British Asia-focused lender Standard Chartered misses on the bottom line despite full-year pre-tax profits more than doubling. French plane maker Airbus smashes FY profit records and resumes dividend payouts. We will also have earnings from Schneider Electric, Commerzbank and Kering. U.S. markets have a mixed session and close flat following the release of Fed minutes which suggest little support for robust tightening. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine cast doubt on Russian claims of troop withdrawals - and President Volodomyr Zelenskyy says Moscow is doing the opposite, concentrating even more forces along Ukraine’s north-eastern border. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.