Horns Of A Dilemma

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Sandra Fahy of Carleton University about the way in which states use video evidence to try to falsely defend themselves against claims of human rights abuses. While many of us might associate misleading video with modern technology, such as deep-fakes, Fahy traces the phenomenon to the earliest days of video and shows how it continues through the present in states such as Korea, China, and Afghanistan under the Taliban. This event was sponsored by the Asia Policy Project, a joint program of the Clements Center and the Strauss Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

As the threat of Russian invasion looms over Ukraine, this week's epsiode of Horns of a Dilemma helps to clarify the origins of the post-Cold War security structure in Europe and the role of NATO expansion and enlargement in defining both Western and Russian threat perception.  Clements Center Executive Director Will Inboden sits down with Professor Mary Sarrotte to discuss her book, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Key among the many issues they discuss is the competing visions between Russian and American and European leaders regarding the status of Ukraine.  This event was held in November at the University of Texas, Austin and sponsored by the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we continue with a panel discussion that follows author Wesley Morgan's discussion of his book, The Hardest Place. If you haven't listened to last week's episode, which includes Morgan's book talk, you may want to do so, since this week's episode includes discussion of events that are covered in Morgan's talk. This event was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, the first of two parts, author Wesley Morgan discusses his book, The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan's Pech Valley. Morgan has written an extraordinary biography of the American presence in Afghanistan, focusing on one particular place, and through the history of the American war in that place, capturing the 20-year American war effort in it heroism, nobility, hubris, and folly.  Morgan spoke at the University of Texas, Austin, in an event jointly sponsored by the Clements Center and the McCombs School of Business. He is introduced by Paul Edgar, Associate Director of the Clements Center.

In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from retired U.S. Army Colonel Dr. Christopher Kolenda about his new book, Zero Sum Victory: What We Get Wrong About War.  Kolenda draws on his experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to help explain why it feels as if the United States has had what he calls "the inverse Midas touch" when it comes to interventions: everything we've tried has bogged down into quagmire or defeat.  Kolenda's argues that U.S. leaders aren't adept at identifying measures of success other than total victory, that they are slow to learn and adapt, and that when the decision is made to withdraw, they often mishandled that process, as well.  This talk was given at the University of Texas, Austin.  

This week's Horns of a Dilemma may be a first in that it deals with a work of fiction.  Author David McCloskey joins Stephen Slick of the Intelligence Studies Project at the University of Texas, Austin, to discuss his new novel, Damascus Station. In the novel, McCloskey draws on his years as a CIA analyst to lend realism to both the civil war in Syria (the setting for the novel) and to the culture and activities of the CIA. The book talk is followed by a discussion between McCloskey and Slick about McCloskey's perspective on intelligence and the CIA in particular. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin.

Joseph Stalin said at the 1943 Tehran Conference that World War II would be won with "British brains, American steel, and Soviet blood." Indeed, the scale of Soviet losses in the war is nearly unimaginable: Some estimates place the number of military and civilian deaths at over 20 million.  But the scale of Russian losses, and the bitter hatred and brutality that characterized combat on the Eastern front, tends to obscure that Germany and the Soviet Union had cooperated militarily for nearly two decades before the Nazi invasion in 1941. Ian Johnson, of Notre Dame University and a former Clements Center fellow, discusses this cooperation in this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, as detailed in his book, Faustian Bargain: The Soviet-German Partnership and the Origins of the Second World War. Johnson lays out the ways in which these two rogue states helped each other to develop the militaries that ultimately engaged in some of the most desperate and deadly combat of World War II.  This talk was given at the

In last week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we heard from Professor Jane Vaynman how emerging technologies may influence the future of arms control. In this week's episode, we hear from Tim Morrison, currently of the Hudson Institute and formerly a deputy advisor to the president for national security in the Trump administration, how arms control is influenced by different positions staked out by the major U.S. political parties. Morrison focuses particularly on negotiations surrounding the extension of the new START treaty between the United States and Russia, and also discusses the role of China, a growing nuclear power with whom the United States does not have any bilateral nuclear arms control agreements. This talk was held at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by the Clements Center.   Note: Mr. Morrison is employed by Boeing, which competes for U.S. missile defense contracts. In this talk, he was speaking in his capacity as a Hudson Institute fellow, and not as a Boeing employee.  

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Professor Jane Vaynman, author of "Better Monitoring and Better Spying: The Impact of Emerging Technology on Arms Control," which appears in Vol. 4/Iss. 4 of the Texas National Security Review, a special issue dedicated to the memory and legacy of Janne Nolan. Vaynman explores how advances in the technology of drones, small satellites, artificial intelligence, and additive manufacturing may impact the future of arms control agreements and verification.  This article was the winner of the Janne Nolan prize competition, sponsored by the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies as part of the Future Strategy Forum. 

The People's Republic of China has risen over the past two decades to become the world's largest economy, when measured by purchasing power parity. As Chinese global economic interests and influence have expanded so, too, has the size and capability of the Chinese military. In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Thomas Shugart, adjunct senior fellow with the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, discusses the implications of growing Chinese military power. Shugart frames his discussion in terms of what he calls the "Malacca Dilemma": Since much of Chinese trade and almost all Chinese energy imports must flow through strategic chokepoints controlled by the U.S. Navy or its allies and partners, Chinese leaders want to be able to protect their interests in these vital regions. But the same capabilities that allow them to protect their trading interests also allow them to threaten, intimidate, and coerce other regional countries, and may give Chinese communist leaders the tools needed

While most people think of North Korea today as an isolated pariah state, the "hermit kingdom" exercised significant influence among Third World nations during the Cold War. North Korean leader Kim Il Sung sent advisors to assist African liberation movements, trained anti-imperialist guerrilla fighters, and completed building projects in developing countries. State-run media coverage of events in the Third World shaped the worldview of many North Koreans and helped them imagine a unified global anti-imperialist front with North Korea at the vanguard. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Benjamin Young of Virginia Commonwealth University discusses these developments, as detailed in his book, Guns, Guerrillas, and the Great Leader: North Korea and the Third World. This talk was sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and was hosted by Professor Sheena Greitens of the LBJ School at the University of Texas, Austin.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Elbridge Colby, co-founder of the Marathon Initiative, former deputy assistant secretary of defense, and author of The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Competition. Colby makes the case for a U.S. defense strategy focused on preventing Chinese hegemony in Asia by denying the Chinese the ability to achieve faits d'accompli--completed acts that violate the security and sovereignty of American's allies and partners in Asia, thereby threatening the defensive perimeter critical to protecting American interests.  Colby's was the principal author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, and his work continues to influence the formulation of strategy today. This event was hosted at the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and is introduced by Professor Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center.

With the release of the Pandora Papers, news reports are filled with stories derived from computer files once thought to be hidden from public scrutiny.  While  the source of the Pandora Papers leak isn't yet known, the pattern of leaked computer files shaping international relations has become increasingly common as information migrates to "the cloud." In addition to the Pandora Papers, the release of the Panama Papers revealed banking secrets of many international leaders, frequently suggesting involvement in activities they would have preferred not be made public.  James Shires discussed the political role of "hack and leak" operations, many of which involve cloud-based data, in his article in Vol. 3/Iss. 4 of Texas National Security Review (our special issue on cyber competition). In this week's episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Christina Morillo, a cyber security expert with substantial experience in the private sector, discusses the nuts and bolts of cloud security. While the discussion is a bit more techn

In the wake of the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, much attention has focused on the fate of Afghan citizens who risked their lives to aid U.S. forces. The hastily organized evacuation of Afghan refugees has frequently drawn unfavorable comparison to the evacuation and resettlement of Vietnamese refugees after the fall of Saigon in 1975. As the guest in this week's podcast demonstrates, however, the story of how the United States came to accept Vietnamese refugees is far more nuanced than many comparisons suggest. Professor Amanda Demmer is the author of After Saigon’s Fall: Refugees and U.S.-Vietnamese Relations, 1975-2000, published this year by Cambridge University Press. In the book, and in her talk, Demmer describes how the process of accepting refugees following the war in Vietnam both shaped and was shaped by significant movements in domestic and international politics, including a re-assertion of Congressional power in foreign relations, changing domestic and international norms regarding refuge

Grand strategy can be a vexing term. While many people understand grand strategy to be an important expression of the way in which countries wield their power, there can often be confusion as to exactly what the term "grand strategy" encompasses. (For listeners eager to explore more on this, Vol. 2, Iss. 1 of Texas National Security Review contains three excellent scholarly articles on grand strategy.) In this episode of Horns of Dilemma, we hear from a collection of authors and editors who are part of a recent book project arguing for a more capacious understanding of grand strategy.  Rethinking American Grand Strategy, published by Oxford University Press this past spring, contains a collection of essays looking at different frameworks, narratives, figures, and approaches to grand strategy. Two of the editors of the volume — Chris Nichols and Andrew Preston — are joined by three authors — Adriane Lentz-Smith, Charlie Edel, and Will Inboden — to discuss the book and their contributions to it. This event was

The 2016 presidential election was a milestone in modern American politics, not only for the surprising victory of a candidate whom many pundits and observers had considered unlikely to win, but also for the degree to which foreign powers attempted to influence the electoral process and outcome. In this week’s Horns of a Dilemma, we hear from Emily Harding, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and formerly the deputy staff director for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Harding details the committee’s broad-reaching bipartisan investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election. She discusses interactions with the concurrent FBI investigation, as well as the ways in which the outcomes of the Senate investigation helped to make the 2018 midterm elections and 2020 presidential election more secure against the types of interference that occurred in 2016. This talk was jointly sponsored by the Clements Center for National Security and the Strauss Center for Inte

In the 1950s, researchers at the RAND Corporation ran two different wargames exploring questions of nuclear strategy. Both were named the Cold War Game, known to the participants as COW.  One, run by the Mathematics Analysis Division (MAD), abstracted questions of the ethics of nuclear war in order to seek reproducible results. The other, run by the Social Sciences Division (SSD), reflected concerns over the ethics and implications of nuclear weapons, resulting in less-certain outcomes. The history of these games sheds light not only on nuclear strategy, but also on the balance between logic and emotion in national security decision-making. Doyle Hodges, executive editor of the Texas National Security Review (TNSR), talks with John R. Emery, the author of Moral Choices Without Moral Language: 1950s Political-Military Wargaming at the RAND Corporation, which appears in Vol 4/Iss 4 of TNSR.  This issue is a special issue dedicated to the legacy of Janne Nolan, a founding member of the TNSR editorial board who p

With the fall of President Ashraf Ghani's government and the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, most of Afghanistan is now under the control of the Taliban. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we are joined by Dr. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and the director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at Brookings, and by Scott R. Anderson, a visiting fellow in governance studies at Brookings, a senior editor and counsel for Lawfare, and a senior fellow with the National Security Law Program at Columbia Law School. Felbab-Brown and Anderson discuss the outlook for the Taliban as they seek to shift from insurgency to governance.  The discussion covers questions of formal legal recognition, as well as questions of legitimacy and capacity for governance. Our guests explain why exercising power as the government of Afghanistan is likely to be more challenging for the Taliban than defeating the previous government was. As Dr. Felbab-Brown observed, "it's much easier to be a

Being an editor involves saying “no,” quite a bit. 85 percent of submissions to both the Texas National Security Review and War on the Rocks never make it to publication.  At the recent Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft in Beaver Creek, Colorado, Doyle Hodges, executive editor of TNSR and chief publishing officer of War on the Rocks, and Megan Oprea, managing editor of TNSR, spoke to the assembled students about how to be in the 15 percent that do wind up in our pages. The question of how to write clearly and persuasively for policy audiences is asked frequently by students and practitioners alike. Doyle and Megan decided to reprise their talk for this episode of Horns of a Dilemma. 

Mark Twain once said that history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The repetition of patterns of events and responses is one reason that scholars and policymakers often turn to the past for insight into how to best deal with contemporary events. It is also why classic works of history and strategy — such as Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War — have become classic and remain relevant. In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Dr. Paul Edgar, associate director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, goes 1,000 years before Thucydides to find enduring lessons as told in an inscription on a statue from the 15th century BCE.  While the names of the rulers and powers may not be familiar, Edgar illustrates how the themes of strategy, alliance, and statecraft in great-power competition are familiar and relevant to power struggles today. This talk was recorded at the Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft, sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, an