Horns Of A Dilemma

The history of nuclear weapons is, thankfully, largely a history of things that haven’t happened.  Since 1945, nuclear weapons have dominated strategy and statecraft, but they have not been used after the first two bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  Professor Frank Gavin of Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and Chair of the Texas National Security Review editorial board, discusses the history and politics of nuclear strategy and statecraft.  His talk is both wide-ranging and specific. Gavin examines the big issues related to nuclear weapons, and the paradoxes of strategy that possession of nuclear weapons creates — such as the fact that the only way to ensure that these terrible weapons are never used is to appear to be credibly poised to use them.  This talk was presented as part of the Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and held at Beaver Creek, Colorado.

Two weeks ago on Horns of a Dilemma, Professor Jim Goldgeier of American University and the Brookings Institution joined Ambassador Alexandra Hall Hall to discuss the thematic connections between the choice in the early 1990s to add new members to the NATO alliance and Britain’s choice in 2016 to leave the European Union.  In last week’s episode, Professor Goldgeier expanded on the history, politics, and consequences of NATO expansion and enlargement. This week, completing the cycle, Ambassador Hall Hall discusses Brexit. Ambassador Hall Hall speaks from personal experience as the senior British diplomat for Brexit issues in the United States, a position from which she ultimately resigned, leaving the British diplomatic corps out of principled disagreement with the way in which the Brexit narrative was being played out.  This event was recorded at the Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft sponsored by the Clements Center at the University of Texas, Austin, and held in Beaver Creek, Colorado.    

In last week’s episode of Horns of a Dilemma, we heard Professor Jim Goldgeier of American University and the Brookings Institution and former British Ambassador Alexandra Hall Hall discuss the thematic connections between the addition of new NATO members after the breakup of the Soviet Union and the dynamics that ultimately led to Brexit.  In this episode, Professor Goldgeier goes into more depth on the promises that were or weren’t made to Soviet and Russian leaders by NATO and Western leaders in the turbulent period between 1991 and 1993.  As Goldgeier explains, even the language used to describe these events — whether “enlargement” or “expansion” — carries shades of meaning that continue to resonate today.  This event was recorded live at the Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft in Beaver Creek, Colorado, and sponsored by the Clements Center of the University of Texas, Austin.

The admission of new NATO members from the former Soviet Union and Warsaw pact marked an expansion of European multilateral institutions.  The growth in membership of European institutions continued until 25 years later, when Britain decided to withdraw from the European Union.  In a session recorded at the Clements Center Summer Seminar on History and Statecraft in Beaver Creek, Colorado, Professor Jim Goldgeier and Ambassador Alexandra Hall Hall examine what common themes connect these two events, exploring question of identity, trust in institutions, and the use (or misuse) of history.

American security policy has made use of tripwire forces for many years.  One of the most prominent examples cited is the case of Berlin: As Thomas Schelling famously described the logic, the small garrison of US soldiers stationed there during the Cold War weren’t militarily capable of defeating the far-larger East German or Soviet forces nearby but, the East Germans or Soviets would be deterred from attacking because any attack would result in the deaths of that small US force, drawing America into a conflict. Our guests today, Professor Dan Reiter of Emery University and Professor Paul Poast of the University of Chicago, argue that Schelling was wrong. Their article, “The Truth About Tripwires: Why Small Force Deployments Do Not Deter Aggression,” in Vol 4, Iss 3 of TNSR, argues that deterrence relies almost exclusively on the military value of force deployment, so small token deployments are unlikely to deter a determined attacker.  They illustrate their argument with two cases from the Korean peninsula,

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Dr. Catherine Lotrionte, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discusses state-sponsored cyber economic espionage, that is the use of state resources in order to obtain private intellectual property, not for the benefit of the state, but for the benefit of industries and companies.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Randall G. Schriver, the former assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs and now serving as the chairman of the Project 2049 Institute, offers an overview of U.S. security relations throughout Asia. He speaks of the policy continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations. He also discusses issues such as human rights and democracy promotion, the role of India and the Quad, and supply chain security.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Nicole Perlroth, author of This is How the Word Ends: The Cyber Weapons Arms Race, sits down with Bobby Chesney, director of the Strauss Center, to discuss the increasing complexity and sophistication of attacks on U.S infrastructure and the challenges presented in defending against cyber attacks.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Ambassador Philip T. Reeker, the acting assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, provides an overview of European security issues. Ambassador Reeker’s talk focuses on Russia, NATO, Eastern Europe, as well as other critical European security issues.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Thomas Ricks, journalist and historian, talks about his new book, “First Principles, What America’s Founders Learned from the Greeks and Romans and How that Shaped Our Country.” Ricks outlines the degree to which the founding fathers were influenced by the ancients and how this influence helped to shape the structure and the principles of the emerging republic.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Martha Bárcena, former Mexican ambassador to the United States, and Kimberly Breier, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discuss U.S.-Mexican relations. The talk covers topics such as immigration and trade, but also highlights the degree to which the U.S. and Mexico are each indispensable to each other.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Henry Hale, professor of political science and international relations at George Washington University, gives a talk about the evolution of power structures in post-Soviet Eurasia. Hale focuses on the concept of “patronalism,” the idea that political power is distributed and wielded by networks that are connected by personal acquaintances and lead by a single powerful patron.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Will Inboden, executive director of the Clements Center, and Jim Golby, senior fellow at the Clements Center, sit down with Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison, a former U.S. senator and most recently U.S. ambassador to NATO. They discuss NATO’s future, the challenges that confront NATO now, as well as the development of a new strategic concept, likely to be developed and unveiled as part of the upcoming NATO summit in June.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Tess Owen, senior reporter at VICE News covering extremism, hate crimes, and gun control, sits down with Brianna Kablack, a Master of Global Policy Studies candidate at the LBJ School of Public Affairs, to discuss domestic extremism. Their talk examines the evolution and developments that Owen has seen in the course of reporting on domestic extremism. These findings include the evolution of what she refers to as “suit and tie extremists,” as well as the mainstreaming of increasingly extremist views.   This talk was sponsored by the Strauss Center and was part of the Brumley Speaker Series.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Josh Rogin, journalist for the Washington Post and CNN, joins the podcast to discuss his new book, Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi, and the Battle for the 21st Century. Rogin details the response of the Trump administration to China, and describes the groups that had influence within the White House in helping to shape policy.   This talk took place at the University of Texas at Austin and was sponsored by the Clements Center and the Strauss Center.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Sean McFate, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and professor of strategy at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, discusses his book The New Rules of War: How America Can Win Against Russia, China, and Other Threats. McFate argues that the lack of strategic success achieved by the U.S. military over the last 30 to 40 years stems not from a lack of investment nor a lack of technology, but from the fact that the United States suffers from what he terms “victors curse.”   This talk took place at the University of Texas at Austin and was sponsored by the Clements Center.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma we listen to a talk from Eli Lake, a national security journalism fellow at the Clements Center and a syndicated columnist on foreign affairs for Bloomberg. Lake shares his thoughts on what he describes as the “new non-interventionism,” comprised of those thinkers, scholars, and policy makers who oppose continued U.S. presence around the world in pursuit of a war on terror. 

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Doyle Hodges, executive editor of the Texas National Security Review, sits down with Hilary Matfess (a Ph.D. candidate at Yale University and a Peace Scholar Fellow at the United States Institute for Peace), and Robert Nagel (a postdoctoral research fellow at the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security), to discuss gender in conflict and the issues surrounding women in the field of security.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Frank Gavin, chair of the editorial board of the Texas National Security Review, sits down with Philip Zelikow to discuss his new book, The Road Less Traveled: The Secret Battle to End the Great War, 1916 - 1917. Gavin and Zelikow explore the story of the peace talks and what might have happened had they succeeded. Moreover, Zelikow explores why this story has never been told. It is an interesting look into how history is shaped and how we understand the past.

In this episode of Horns of a Dilemma, Paul Edgar, associate director of the Clements Center at the University of Texas at Austin, sits down with Gen. (ret.) David Petraeus, currently serving as the director of the KKR Global Institute. During the conversation, Petraeus discusses China and other challenges facing U.S. national security after the Trump administration.